ABSTRACT The 2019 Indian national election delivered a convincing victory to the BJP and, along with it, prognostications of future BJP election wins. The BJP’s victory was certainly impressive, but does it portend a prolonged period of BJP rule at the national level? As of 2019, any predictions of the BJP’s long-term dominance are premature. The election revealed that the BJP possesses relatively few of the party-system advantages common to other dominant parties, including India’s former dominant party, Congress, during its period of dominance. Whereas a party is ideally situated to become dominant when it is large, enjoys a deep and broad base of support, and faces an opposition that is both fragmented and stigmatized, the BJP’s main advantage lies in its relatively deep support base in its political strongholds. On other dimensions, the BJP has far less in common with other dominant parties.

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印度新的主导政党？将 2019 年人民党的胜利置于比较和历史的角度

摘要 2019 年印度全国大选为 BJP 带来了令人信服的胜利，同时也预示了未来 BJP 大选获胜的预测。人民党的胜利固然令人印象深刻，但它是否预示着人民党在国家层面的长期统治？截至 2019 年，对人民党长期主导地位的任何预测都为时过早。选举显示，印度人民党在其统治时期拥有相对较少的政党制度优势，与其他占统治地位的政党（包括印度前占统治地位的政党国会）所共有的优势相对较少。一个政党在理想情况下处于优势地位，当它规模庞大、享有深厚而广泛的支持基础并面临既支离破碎又被污名化的反对派时，人民党的主要优势在于其政治据点中相对深厚的支持基础。在其他维度上，