Abstract

Binding lower bounds on interest rates and large government deficits limit the scope of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate households’ spending through financial intermediaries and firms. Policy makers have thus been implementing unconventional policies that aim to increase households’ spending directly through managing their expectations. We first show theoretically and empirically that higher inflation expectations increase households’ consumption. We then design a difference-in-differences strategy to assess the effectiveness of unconventional fiscal policy and forward guidance, both of which aim to raise aggregate demand via managing expectations. Whereas unconventional fiscal policy increases households’ expectations and spending, forward guidance announcements do not

中文翻译：

---

用非常规政策管理家庭的期望

摘要

利率下限和巨额政府赤字限制了财政和货币政策通过金融中介机构和公司刺激家庭支出的范围。因此，政策制定者一直在实施非常规政策，旨在通过管理预期来直接增加家庭支出。我们首先从理论上和经验上表明，较高的通胀预期会增加家庭消费。然后，我们设计了一个差异中的差异策略来评估非常规财政政策和前瞻性指导的有效性，这两者都旨在通过管理预期来提高总需求。尽管非常规财政政策增加了家庭的预期和支出，但前瞻性指导公告并没有