Recent analysis of European on-farm data revealed yield instability for winter oilseed rape (WOSR). To better facilitate farmers, the main participants in agriculture, it is of vital importance to interpret how the fluctuation in crop yields and other potential factors may influence farmers’ perspectives and decision-making in the future. However, few studies have explored this aspect.

This research aims to focus on farmers′ concerns and anticipated behaviour adjustments for future WOSR production. By using a case study in north-eastern Germany, an online farmer survey was developed to explore the situation regarding past and future production and management of European WOSR.

One of the most interesting findings is that the farmer participants anticipated to grow a smaller share of WOSR in the future with a one-year longer rotation gap. Crop yields was suggested to be a major factor influencing this decision change.

Farmers are concerned about the future infestation risks of insect pests and fungal diseases in WOSR, thus they expressed potential related adjustments in crop varieties (Turnip yellows virus and clubroot resistant cultivars) and management strategies (e.g., increase insecticide use, adjust rotation rotations). Their behaviours were also highly influenced by the regulation changes at European and national levels, especially regarding glyphosate and fertilizer restrictions. Potential future weather extremes caused by climate changes are also of concerns to farmers.

This study helps provide indications for future WOSR production in Europe. However, the findings about farmers’ behavioural inclinations due to WOSR yield instability, regulation adjustments and environmental changes may also be useful for other regions globally that have similar conditions.

最近对欧洲农场数据的分析表明，冬季油菜 (WOSR) 的产量不稳定。为了更好地为农民提供便利，作为农业的主要参与者，解释作物产量的波动和其他潜在因素如何影响农民未来的观点和决策至关重要。然而，很少有研究探讨这方面。

本研究旨在关注农民对未来 WOSR 生产的关注和预期的行为调整。通过使用德国东北部的案例研究，开发了一项在线农民调查，以探讨欧洲 WOSR 过去和未来的生产和管理情况。

最有趣的发现之一是，农民参与者预计未来 WOSR 的份额将增加，轮换间隔将延长一年。作物产量被认为是影响这一决定变化的主要因素。

农民担心WOSR未来虫害和真菌病害的侵染风险，因此他们表达了对作物品种（萝卜黄病毒和根瘤病抗性品种）和管理策略（例如，增加杀虫剂的使用，调整轮作调整）的潜在相关调整。他们的行为也受到欧洲和国家层面法规变化的高度影响，尤其是在草甘膦和肥料限制方面。气候变化可能导致的未来极端天气也引起农民的关注。

这项研究有助于为欧洲未来的 WOSR 生产提供指示。然而，由于 WOSR 产量不稳定、法规调整和环境变化而导致的农民行为倾向的发现也可能对全球其他具有类似条件的地区有用。