Spatiotemporal characteristics and hydrological implications of downscaled hourly precipitation climate scenarios for South Korea,International Journal of Climatology

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Spatiotemporal characteristics and hydrological implications of downscaled hourly precipitation climate scenarios for South Korea
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-16 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7300
Taesam Lee ₁ , Jong‐Suk Kim ₂ , Jie Chen ₂

Affiliation

The assessment of hydrometeorological variables using climate scenario data derived from global climate models (GCMs) is essential for adapting and mitigating climate-induced changes. However, GCM outputs are too coarse to apply at the basin scale. Therefore, spatial downscaling of GCM outputs has been widely used to assess hydrological changes on the basin scale. Temporal downscaling is also required to obtain hourly precipitation data for small or medium basin analysis because only several hours of data are required to determine peak flows after rainfall. This study presents the spatiotemporal distribution of downscaled hourly precipitation over South Korea for two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), as well as its implications over hydrological responses. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the mean hourly precipitation significantly increases over the southern part of South Korea, especially during the morning, with a smaller increase at later times of the day. However, this increase is not propagated to the mainland because of mountainous areas in the southern part of the country. Furthermore, the hydrological responses determined by a distributed rainfall-runoff model reveal a significant increase in the peak flow under the RCP8.5 scenario but a slight decrease under the RCP4.5 scenario. In addition, the observed relation between extreme precipitation and temperature is compared with that under RCP8.5. The results indicate that the downscaled hourly precipitation data adequately reproduce the observed relationship. We conclude that the temporal downscaling method used in this study is suitable for obtaining hourly precipitation data from daily GCM scenarios. In addition, rainfall-runoff simulations using downscaled hourly precipitation data are useful for investigating hydrological response variability related to future climate scenarios.

中文翻译：

韩国每小时降水气候情景的时空特征和水文意义

使用源自全球气候模型 (GCM) 的气候情景数据评估水文气象变量对于适应和缓解气候引起的变化至关重要。然而，GCM 输出过于粗略，无法应用于流域规模。因此，GCM 输出的空间降尺度已被广泛用于评估流域尺度的水文变化。还需要时间降尺度来获得用于中小型流域分析的每小时降水数据，因为只需要几个小时的数据来确定降雨后的峰值流量。本研究介绍了在两个具有代表性的浓度路径情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）下韩国每小时降水量的时空分布，以及其对水文响应的影响。RCP8.5场景下，韩国南部的平均小时降水量显着增加，尤其是在早上，一天中的晚些时候增加幅度较小。然而，由于该国南部山区，这种增加并没有传播到大陆。此外，由分布式降雨径流模型确定的水文响应显示，在 RCP8.5 情景下峰值流量显着增加，但在 RCP4.5 情景下略有下降。此外，将观测到的极端降水与温度之间的关系与RCP8.5下的关系进行了比较。结果表明，缩小的每小时降水数据充分再现了观察到的关系。我们得出结论，本研究中使用的时间降尺度方法适用于从每日 GCM 情景中获取每小时降水数据。此外，使用缩小的每小时降水数据进行降雨径流模拟对于研究与未来气候情景相关的水文响应变异性很有用。

更新日期：2021-07-16

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