Worldwide, countries have been restricting work and social activities to counter the emerging public health crisis due to the coronavirus pandemic. These measures have caused dramatic increases in unemployment. Some commentators argue that the "draconian measures" will do more harm than good due to the economic contraction, despite a large literature that finds mortality rates decline during recessions. We estimate the relationship between unemployment, a proxy for economic climate, and mortality in Australia, a country with universal health care. Using administrative time-series data on mortality by state, age, sex, and cause of death for 1979–2017, we find no relationship between unemployment and mortality on average. However, we observe beneficial health effects in economic downturns for young men, associated with a reduction in transport accidents. Our estimates imply 431 fewer deaths in 2020 if unemployment rates double as forecast. For the early 1980s, we find a procyclical pattern in infant mortality rates. However, this pattern disappears starting from the mid-1980s, coincident with the 1984 implementation of universal health care. Our results suggest that universal health care may insulate individuals from the health effects of macroeconomic fluctuations.

中文翻译：

---

经济衰退期间挽救的生命：来自澳大利亚的证据

在世界范围内，各国一直在限制工作和社会活动，以应对因冠状病毒大流行而出现的公共卫生危机。这些措施导致失业率急剧上升。一些评论员认为，尽管有大量文献发现经济衰退期间死亡率下降，但由于经济收缩，“严厉措施”弊大于利。我们估计了澳大利亚这个全民医疗保健国家的失业率（经济气候的代表）与死亡率之间的关系。使用 1979 年至 2017 年按州、年龄、性别和死因划分的死亡率的行政时间序列数据，我们发现平均而言失业率与死亡率之间没有关系。然而，我们观察到经济衰退对年轻男性的有益健康影响，与减少运输事故有关。如果失业率如预期翻倍，我们的估计意味着 2020 年死亡人数将减少 431 人。在 1980 年代初期，我们发现婴儿死亡率呈顺周期模式。然而，这种模式从 1980 年代中期开始消失，恰逢 1984 年实施全民医疗保健。我们的结果表明，全民医疗保健可以使个人免受宏观经济波动对健康的影响。