Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) and particularly the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), has rapidly evolved and grown significantly over the past 20 years. Sports performance research into MMA is limited, and as such, there are potential gains to be made by practitioners supported by scientific research. The outcomes of UFC bouts from 1997 to 2020 that ended with a knockout (n = 1815) were analysed as a function of each fighters significant strike percentage to quantify the “puncher’s chance”. Logistic regression was utilised to model the association between the outcome (win or loss), and the strike percentage. The limit of this model then provides the absolute minimum odds associated with the puncher’s chance (as the percentage approaches zero). Results gave a value of approximately 1:2000 for a fighter that is being completely outclassed. Features in the data highlighted what are dubbed “practical” values of the puncher’s chance. For a mildly outclassed fighter, landing 35% to 45% of total strikes, the odds were 1:40.

中文翻译：

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拳手在职业综合格斗比赛中的机会

综合格斗 (MMA)，尤其是终极格斗锦标赛 (UFC)，在过去 20 年中迅速发展并显着增长。MMA 的运动表现研究是有限的，因此，在科学研究的支持下，从业者可以获得潜在的收益。从 1997 年到 2020 年以淘汰赛结束（n = 1815）的 UFC 比赛的结果被分析为每个战士的重要罢工百分比的函数，以量化“拳击手的机会”。逻辑回归被用来模拟结果（赢或输）和罢工百分比之间的关联。该模型的极限然后提供与打孔者的机会相关的绝对最小几率（当百分比接近于零时）。结果表明，一架完全被超越的战斗机的价值约为 1:2000。数据中的特征突出了被称为打孔者机会的“实用”价值。对于稍微落后于总攻击次数的 35% 到 45% 的战斗机，几率为 1:40。