The paper assesses international spillovers from a twin demand shock, originating sequentially in two large economies. Using a network-based spillover model, the paper concludes that while the initial shock may be modest, the network effects in shock spillovers can be substantial, comparable, and often exceed the initial shock. Individual countries may amplify, absorb, or block spillovers. To illustrate the model, the paper quantifies the macroeconomic impact of a hypothetical reduction of bilateral trade between the United States and China as a result of mutual trade restriction.

中文翻译：

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双重贸易冲击：美中贸易紧张局势的溢出效应

该论文评估了双重需求冲击的国际溢出效应，这些冲击依次起源于两个大型经济体。该论文使用基于网络的溢出模型得出结论，虽然初始冲击可能不大，但冲击溢出中的网络效应可能是巨大的、可比较的，并且经常超过初始冲击。个别国家可能会放大、吸收或阻止溢出效应。为了说明该模型，本文量化了假设中美双边贸易因相互贸易限制而减少的宏观经济影响。