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A simulation exercise for incorporating long-term path dependencies in urgent decision-making
Futures ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2021.102812
Paavo Järvensivu 1 , Helmi Räisänen 2 , Janne I. Hukkinen 2
Affiliation  

Urban policymakers of the 2020s must act within various types of wicked socio-ecological disruptions. Under deep uncertainty and time pressure, they must make decisions which will define the scope of possible actions in the future. Our aim was to develop a research instrument that would enable researchers and practitioners to learn about such policymaking. We designed and ran a half-day simulation exercise, the Policy Operations Room (POR). The participants were the top politicians and a group of senior experts from the City of Helsinki, Finland. The design of the exercise was based on a review of simulation and gaming research literature. The exercise managed to integrate – albeit imperfectly – the utilitarian and emancipatory dimensions in futures studies: it gave the participants the utilitarian possibility to practice decision-making and the emancipatory possibility to critically reflect on decision-making in wicked, science-based scenarios. It also gave the researchers a chance to witness urgent decision-making in action. Issues deserving further attention include the inclusion of social-political complexity in the scenarios and practitioner involvement in the design process of the exercise. All in all, the POR constitutes a unique way of integrating science-based assessment of future path dependencies into science–policy research and interaction.



中文翻译:

将长期路径依赖纳入紧急决策的模拟练习

2020 年代的城市政策制定者必须在各种恶劣的社会生态破坏中采取行动。在极度的不确定性和时间压力下,他们必须做出决定,确定未来可能采取的行动范围。我们的目标是开发一种研究工具,使研究人员和从业人员能够了解此类决策。我们设计并运行了一个为期半天的模拟练习,即政策操作室 (POR)。参加者是芬兰赫尔辛基市的高层政治家和一批资深专家。演习的设计基于对模拟和游戏研究文献的回顾。该练习成功地整合了未来研究中的功利主义和解放性维度——尽管并不完美:它为参与者提供了实践决策的功利性可能性,以及在邪恶的、基于科学的情景中批判性反思决策的解放性可能性。它还让研究人员有机会见证紧急决策的实施。值得进一步关注的问题包括将社会政治复杂性纳入情景以及从业者参与演练的设计过程。总而言之,POR 构成了一种独特的方式,将基于科学的未来路径依赖评估整合到科学政策研究和互动中。值得进一步关注的问题包括将社会政治复杂性纳入情景以及从业者参与演练的设计过程。总而言之,POR 构成了一种独特的方式,将基于科学的未来路径依赖性评估整合到科学政策研究和互动中。值得进一步关注的问题包括将社会政治复杂性纳入情景以及从业者参与演练的设计过程。总而言之,POR 构成了一种独特的方式,将基于科学的未来路径依赖性评估整合到科学政策研究和互动中。

更新日期:2021-08-05
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