To study the long-term effects of school-starting-age rules in a setting with early ability tracking, we exploit the birth month threshold used in the Netherlands. We find that students born just after the threshold perform better at the end of primary school than students born just before it. This translates into increased placement in high ability tracks in secondary education. This difference diminishes gradually during subsequent stages, and we find no effect on the highest attained educational level. Those born just before the threshold enter the labor market somewhat younger and have therefore more labor market experience and higher earnings at any age until 40. We conclude that early ability tracking does not harm long-term outcomes of children who were, for exogenous reasons, placed in a lower track.

为了研究早期能力跟踪环境中的入学年龄规则的长期影响，我们利用了荷兰使用的出生月份阈值。我们发现刚好在阈值之后出生的学生在小学结束时的表现要好于刚好在阈值之前出生的学生。这意味着在中等教育中增加了高能力课程的安置。这种差异在随后的阶段逐渐减小，我们发现对达到的最高教育水平没有影响。那些刚好在门槛之前出生的人进入劳动力市场的年龄要小一些，因此在 40 岁之前的任何年龄都有更多的劳动力市场经验和更高的收入。我们的结论是，早期能力跟踪不会损害儿童的长期结果，因为外生原因，放置在较低的轨道上。