A process-based crop model equipped with seasonal climate forecasts has been typically used to expect crop yields before or in the middle of the growing period. In this work, to consider the farmers’ risk-aversion behavior, we slightly shifted the typical focus to the risk associated with a crucial farming decision in a rainfed paddy rice field, the transplanting timing. Using a simple crop model and a semi-parametric weather generator, we tested hypothetical and real sets of climate forecasts for the rice field under nutrient deficiency in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR). Results showed that the first climatic risk in the study field was an occational dry conditions, and the traditional timing of transplanting seemed to minimize the worst effect of potential dry conditions. It was found that the transplanting timing needs to be 5–10 days earlier than the farming tradition when fertility stress delays foliage development. The tests with hypothetical climate forecasts suggest that duration of a potential dry condition needs to be reliably forecasted to manage the climatic risk by adjusting the transplanting timing. The yield simulations for the 2015 El-Niño event also implcate that adjusting the transplanting timing could effectively reduce the potential impact of dry climate at a cost of slightly reduced yield expectation. This study exemplifies how to explicitly assess the climatic risk associated with the farming decision using ready-to-use climate data and a simple crop model.

配备季节性气候预测的基于过程的作物模型通常用于在生长期之前或中期预测作物产量。在这项工作中，为了考虑农民的风险规避行为，我们将典型的重点稍微转移到与雨养稻田关键农业决策相关的风险，即移栽时间。使用简单的作物模型和半参数天气发生器，我们测试了老挝人民民主共和国 (PDR) 养分缺乏条件下稻田的假设和真实气候预测集。结果表明，研究领域的第一个气候风险是偶然的干燥条件，而传统的移栽时间似乎最大限度地减少了潜在干燥条件的最坏影响。发现当生育压力延迟叶子发育时，移栽时间需要比耕作传统提前5-10天。对假设气候预测的测试表明，需要可靠地预测潜在干旱条件的持续时间，以通过调整移植时间来管理气候风险。2015 年厄尔尼诺事件的产量模拟也表明，调整移栽时间可以有效减少干旱气候的潜在影响，但代价是产量预期略有降低。本研究举例说明了如何使用现成的气候数据和简单的作物模型明确评估与农业决策相关的气候风险。对假设气候预测的测试表明，需要可靠地预测潜在干旱条件的持续时间，以通过调整移植时间来管理气候风险。2015 年厄尔尼诺事件的产量模拟也表明，调整移栽时间可以有效减少干旱气候的潜在影响，但代价是产量预期略有降低。本研究举例说明了如何使用现成的气候数据和简单的作物模型明确评估与农业决策相关的气候风险。对假设气候预测的测试表明，需要可靠地预测潜在干旱条件的持续时间，以通过调整移植时间来管理气候风险。2015 年厄尔尼诺事件的产量模拟也表明，调整移栽时间可以有效减少干旱气候的潜在影响，但代价是产量预期略有降低。本研究举例说明了如何使用现成的气候数据和简单的作物模型明确评估与农业决策相关的气候风险。2015 年厄尔尼诺事件的产量模拟也表明，调整移栽时间可以有效减少干旱气候的潜在影响，但代价是产量预期略有降低。本研究举例说明了如何使用现成的气候数据和简单的作物模型明确评估与农业决策相关的气候风险。2015 年厄尔尼诺事件的产量模拟也表明，调整移栽时间可以有效减少干旱气候的潜在影响，但代价是产量预期略有降低。本研究举例说明了如何使用现成的气候数据和简单的作物模型明确评估与农业决策相关的气候风险。