Pipe-embedded building envelope, which is of particular interest to architects and engineers due to its excellent performances and invisibility characteristic, has been regarded as a potential technology for future buildings. Understanding the impacts of multiple uncertainties associated with design, construction, and operational control on its thermal performances is critical to the development of this burgeoning active insulation technology. Aiming at this goal, an in-depth uncertainty analysis (UA) and global sensitivity analysis (GSA) study was numerically conducted to investigate the influence mechanism of 12 different variables on 5 performance indicators in winter conditions. The UA results indicated that a dual-effect, i.e., better indoor thermal comfort and “zero” or even “negative” thermal load of the exterior walls, could be achieved only when relevant variables were properly selected. Due to the increase in the quantities and types of input variables, as well as the internal heat transfer process became more complicated, the importance rankings of variables obtained by two different GSA methods became different. Therefore, the treed Gaussian process method was proven to be more effective in identifying the uncertain variables. The GSA results stated that heat-source temperature, indoor set-point, charging duration, and thermal conductivity of pipe-embedded layer were the four most significant variables. For heat-source temperature and indoor set-point, there always existed an obvious mutual restriction relationship between them among all indicators except exterior surface heating loss. Meanwhile, the suggested value of the charging duration was no less than 6 h, and the optimal range of the thermal conductivity of pipe-embedded layer given by GSA was 0.5–2.75 W/m·℃. Under the blocking effect of the thermal barrier, the uncertainty of the climate zone on interior surface heating load was greatly reduced, and the climate zone was no longer a key variable affecting the cumulative subcooling duration. Besides, it was proved that the pipe spacing had a great influence on the heat accumulation inside the pipe-embedded layer, pipe location had a slight influence on interior surface heating load and exterior surface heating loss, and the pipe diameter did not influence thermal performances. From the perspective of energy density, the optimal range of the pipe spacing was 100–250 mm. Overall, this study highlighted the positive effect of the pipe-embedded system on the development of new-built and existing buildings towards zero-carbon targets, and also provided useful guidance for its further applications and investigations.

管道嵌入式建筑围护结构因其卓越的性能和隐身特性而引起建筑师和工程师的特别关注，已被视为未来建筑的一项潜在技术。了解与设计、施工和运行控制相关的多种不确定性对其热性能的影响对于这种新兴的主动隔热技术的发展至关重要。针对这一目标，开展了深入的不确定性分析（UA）和全局敏感性分析（GSA）研究，研究了冬季条件下12个不同变量对5个性能指标的影响机制。UA 结果表明双重效应，即更好的室内热舒适性和“零”甚至“负”外墙热负荷，只有在正确选择相关变量时才可以实现。由于输入变量数量和类型的增加，以及内部传热过程变得更加复杂，两种不同的 GSA 方法获得的变量的重要性排序变得不同。因此，证明了树状高斯过程方法在识别不确定变量方面更有效。GSA 结果表明，热源温度、室内设定点、充电持续时间和管道嵌入层的热导率是四个最重要的变量。对于热源温度和室内设定点，除外表面热损失外，所有指标之间始终存在明显的相互制约关系。同时，充电时间建议值不小于6 h，GSA给出的埋管层导热系数的最佳范围为0.5-2.75 W/m·℃。在热障的阻挡作用下，气候带对内表面热负荷的不确定性大大降低，气候带不再是影响累积过冷持续时间的关键变量。此外，还证明管间距对埋管层内的热量积累有很大影响，管子位置对内表面热负荷和外表面热损失有轻微影响，管径对热性能没有影响。 . 从能量密度的角度来看，管间距的最佳范围为100-250 mm。全面的，