Despite recent advances in aircraft maintenance technology, the breakdowns and catastrophic accidents due to human failure during maintenance activities will continue to occur. This paper argues that the impact of human error is amplified by the increased frequency of activities as a result of premature maintenance (PRM). PRM refers to predated or early maintenance tasks resulting in additional activities over a long horizon. A novel methodology is proposed to monetize the impact of PRM and show its contribution to total maintenance cost. The proposed methodology is inspired by the proportional hazard model to capture the effects of human failure on the system’s hazard rate. Our findings show that the contribution of PRM to the total operating cost is noticeable; this justifies a level of flight delay or even cancellation due to accommodate on-time maintenance activities.

中文翻译：

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飞机过早维护：成本问题还是风险问题？

尽管飞机维修技术最近取得了进步，但由于维修活动中人为失误造成的故障和灾难性事故将继续发生。本文认为，由于过早维护 (PRM)，活动频率的增加会放大人为错误的影响。PRM 是指过时的或早期的维护任务，导致长期的额外活动。提出了一种新颖的方法来将 PRM 的影响货币化并显示其对总维护成本的贡献。所提出的方法受到比例风险模型的启发，以捕捉人为故障对系统风险率的影响。我们的研究结果表明，PRM 对总运营成本的贡献是显着的；