This research investigates the direct effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy, focusing on Lombardy, the most affected region by the pandemic both in the first wave of infection (March–April 2020) as well as in the second wave (October–November 2020). We analyzed the data of the death tolls provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics in April 2020 with the aim to provide reliable estimates and maps of deaths due to Covid-19 at the local scale, and hence better guiding decisions on spatial planning.

Firstly, we performed a statistical analysis at the national level, carried out on a region-by-region basis, to compare the total number of deaths in 2020 to the average values of the previous five years. We focused on the last three weeks of March when the lockdown restrictions have been fully applied. We observed that the mortality rate has been much higher than the average recorded in recent years (2015–2019), both in Italy and Lombardy. Additionally, we estimated that the ‘excess deaths’ in March 2020 are more than fourfold (325% in Italy) the official number of deaths due to Covid-19 reported by the Ministry of Health. This leads to the dramatic consideration that most of the Covid-19-related deaths occurred at home.

Lastly, using geo-referenced data by Geographic Information System analysis at the municipality scale, we investigated the Covid-19 effects by grouping the deceased into five age-groups, aiming to map the correlation between geography and population age. Lombardy is a wide region, characterized by various territories, such as mountains, flat landscapes, metropolitan and touristic areas. The Covid-19 pandemic affected each area in a specific way. For each of them, according to the demographic pyramid's reconfiguration, we should assume an urban planning scenario that is place-based, sustainable and resilient.

这项研究调查了意大利 Covid-19 大流行的直接影响，重点是伦巴第大区，这是在第一波感染（2020 年 3 月至 4 月）和第二波（10 月至 11 月）中受大流行影响最严重的地区2020）。我们分析了意大利国家统计局 2020 年 4 月提供的死亡人数数据，目的是提供当地范围内 Covid-19 造成的死亡人数的可靠估计和地图，从而更好地指导空间规划决策。

首先，我们在国家层面进行了分地区统计分析，将2020年的死亡总数与前五年的平均值进行比较。我们专注于 3 月的最后三周，当时锁定限制已完全实施。我们观察到，意大利和伦巴第的死亡率远高于近年来（2015-2019 年）记录的平均水平。此外，我们估计 2020 年 3 月的“超额死亡人数”是卫生部报告的因 Covid-19 导致的官方死亡人数的四倍多（意大利为 325%）。这导致了一个戏剧性的考虑，即大多数与 Covid-19 相关的死亡发生在家里。

最后，我们通过地理信息系统分析在市政范围内使用地理参考数据，通过将死者分为五个年龄组来研究 Covid-19 的影响，旨在绘制地理与人口年龄之间的相关性。伦巴第是一个广阔的地区，以不同的领土为特征，如山脉、平坦的景观、大都市和旅游区。Covid-19 大流行以特定方式影响了每个地区。对于他们中的每一个，根据人口金字塔的重新配置，我们应该假设一个基于地方、可持续和有弹性的城市规划场景。