Should agriculture or non-agriculture be a priority for development? We revisit this question using a two-sector, three-factor dynamic model with an asymptotic balanced growth path. The model allows a forward-looking assessment of development priorities based on lifetime welfare. A comparison of sector-specific productivity gains indicates that gains in non-agriculture are often more valuable, even when agriculture is initially the largest sector in terms of employment. We discuss the robustness of this result and how international capital mobility, capital intensity, demographics, the discount rate, and taxes on profits influence investment and structural transformation.

中文翻译：

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发展重点：农业增长的相对收益

应该优先发展农业还是非农业？我们使用具有渐近平衡增长路径的两部门、三因素动态模型重新审视这个问题。该模型允许基于终生福利对发展重点进行前瞻性评估。对特定部门生产力收益的比较表明，非农业领域的收益往往更有价值，即使农业最初是就业方面最大的部门。我们讨论了这一结果的稳健性以及国际资本流动、资本密集度、人口统计、贴现率和利润税如何影响投资和结构转型。