We investigate the long-run relations and equilibrium correction mechanisms between gross capital inflows, outflows and global financial conditions for advanced (AE) and emerging market economies (EME). According to our results, the puzzling findings of the recent literature suggesting that domestic and foreign investors act as distant cousins, leading to capital inflows and outflows to act as twins, tend to be supported for the long run. The short-run relations, however, often appear to be consistent with the conventional theory suggesting that the behaviors of residents and non-residents do not systematically diverge from each other. Consistent with flight to safety concerns, capital outflows from EME and capital inflows to AE tend to increase in the long run in response to worsening global financial conditions. We find that these results essentially hold for the main components of capital flows as well.

我们研究了发达经济体 (AE) 和新兴市场经济体 (EME) 的总资本流入、流出与全球金融状况之间的长期关系和均衡修正机制。根据我们的研究结果，近期文献中令人费解的发现表明，国内外投资者充当远亲，导致资本流入和流出充当孪生兄弟，从长远来看，往往得到支持。然而，短期关系似乎与传统理论一致，即居民和非居民的行为不会系统地相互偏离。与逃离安全问题相一致，从长期来看，新兴市场的资本流出和向 AE 的资本流入往往会增加，以应对不断恶化的全球金融状况。