ABSTRACT

This paper asks why uncertainties are avoided in dominant megaproject practice while planning scholars are increasingly advocating adaptive planning and uncertainty acknowledgement. We propose a novel analytical framework to explain uncertainty avoidance, consisting of two current explanations – resource constraint and strategic behaviour models – and a complementary institutional model. We apply the framework to a seaport megaproject in Flanders to test its validity. Results show that the institutional model increases our understanding of uncertainty avoidance. More attention to planning institutions and far-reaching institutional changes are required to facilitate a move towards uncertainty acknowledgement and adaptive planning.

摘要

本文询问为什么在主导的大型项目实践中避免了不确定性，而规划学者越来越提倡适应性规划和不确定性承认。我们提出了一个新的分析框架来解释不确定性规避，包括两种当前的解释——资源约束和战略行为模型——以及一个互补的制度模型。我们将该框架应用于法兰德斯的一个海港大型项目，以测试其有效性。结果表明，制度模型增加了我们对不确定性规避的理解。需要更多地关注规划制度和影响深远的制度变革，以促进向不确定性确认和适应性规划迈进。