ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to examine the trends in Olympic Games (OLY) and World Long Course Championships (WLC) across three performance categories (1^st-3^rd, 4^th-8^th and 9^th-16^th), and to make predictions for the 2024 OLY. Top 16 rankings were obtained for all OLY and WLC competitions between 2011 and 2019. Linear regression and forecasting models were used to examine trends and predictions. A total of 3,061 individual race results were included. For both genders, significant changes were observed in 13 of 14 Olympic events, with most changes highlighting those events have improved (mean: −0.72% (± 0.81%) for Men; −0.60% (± 0.81%) for Women). For the 2024 predictions, events fall into five groups: improving; declining; converging; diverging; and stable. These results offer insights about trends in times required to be a semi-finalist, finalist, and medalist. This, coupled with the 2024 predictions, may allow high-performance programs to target specific OLY events.

摘要

本研究的目的是检查奥运会 (OLY) 和世界长球场锦标赛 (WLC) 在三个表现类别（第 1 ^{-3 rd}、4 ^th -8 ^th和 9 ^th -16 ^th ）中的趋势)，并对 2024 OLY 做出预测。2011 年至 2019 年所有 OLY 和 WLC 比赛均获得前 16 名。线性回归和预测模型用于检查趋势和预测。总共包括了 3,061 个个人比赛结果。对于两性而言，14 项奥运会项目中有 13 项发生了显着变化，其中大多数变化表明这些项目有所改善（平均：男性为 -0.72% (± 0.81%)；女性为 -0.60% (± 0.81%)）。对于 2024 年的预测，事件分为五组：改善；下降；收敛；发散；并且稳定。这些结果提供了有关成为半决赛、决赛和奖牌获得者所需时间趋势的见解。这与 2024 年的预测相结合，可能允许高性能程序针对特定的 OLY 事件。