ABSTRACT

Based on gross value added (GVA) shares of economic activities from 1990 to 2014, the paper shows that convex growth-instability frontiers exist for 19 Latin American countries. Numerical simulations show that in 2011, Latin America's industry portfolios were below Markowitz's efficiency frontier, and that rearranging the shares of economic activities contributes to efficiency gains that are negatively linked to industrial diversification. Reducing output volatility, MERCOSUR countries with a low degree of industrial diversification would average relatively high efficiency gains, while the reverse is true for CACAM and CAN countries. Analyzing more recent industry portfolios, Latin American countries closed the efficiency frontier gap and captured efficiency gains in terms of lower output volatility and higher GVA growth rates. Convex growth-instability frontiers are confirmed by stochastic frontier analysis, which identifies variations in employment ratios and industrial diversification as the key sources of inefficiency.

摘要

基于 1990 年至 2014 年经济活动的总增加值 (GVA) 份额，本文表明 19 个拉丁美洲国家存在凸形增长不稳定边界。数值模拟显示，2011 年，拉丁美洲的工业组合低于马科维茨的效率前沿，重新安排经济活动的份额有助于提高效率，而这与工业多元化呈负相关。减少产出波动，工业多元化程度低的南方共同市场国家平均会获得相对较高的效率收益，而 CACAM 和 CAN 国家则相反。分析最近的行业组合，拉丁美洲国家缩小了效率前沿差距，并通过较低的产出波动和较高的 GVA 增长率获得了效率收益。