The newly introduced dual-credit policy has made electrification inevitable for traditional automakers. This study considers stochastic credit prices and time-dependent electric vehicle (EV) investment costs to present a novel optimal decision model with three indicators: investment timing, research and development intensity, and product line allocation. This combinatorial optimization problem is solved by developing a genetic algorithm. The simulation result shows that the high profitability of EVs can accelerate electrification, while rapid credit price increases may instead d[1]elay it. Meanwhile, the Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CFAC) credit rules outperform the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) credit rules in facilitating electrification and driving long-term cumulative EV productions. Interestingly, despite the pressure these rules bring, tightening them is not necessarily beneficial for boosting electrification. Overall, introducing credit ceiling and floor prices, or coordinating policy parameters by steadily tightening CAFC rules while appropriately moderating NEV rules, would effectively accelerate electrification and promote EV productions.

新出台的双贷政策，让传统车企的电动化成为必然。本研究考虑了随机信贷价格和时间相关的电动汽车（EV）投资成本，提出了一个具有三个指标的新型最优决策模型：投资时机、研发强度和产品线配置。这个组合优化问题是通过开发遗传算法来解决的。模拟结果表明，电动汽车的高盈利能力可以加速电气化，而信贷价格的快速上涨可能会延迟[1]。同时，企业平均燃料消耗量（CFAC）信贷规则在促进电气化和推动长期累积电动汽车产量方面优于新能源汽车（NEV）信贷规则。有趣的是，尽管这些规则带来了压力，收紧它们不一定有利于促进电气化。总体而言，引入信贷上限和下限价格，或通过稳步收紧CAFC规则并适当放松新能源汽车规则来协调政策参数，将有效加速电动化并促进电动汽车生产。