The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) is an atmospheric phenomenon, typical of summertime, in which a band of nebulosity may cause intense or persistent rainfall in many regions of Brazil. The association between this natural event and human interventions is a major factor for the occurrence of social and environmental impacts such as floods, flash floods, inundations, and landslides. In this work, we objectively quantify the relationship between the SACZ and the incidence of natural hazards in Southeast Brazil from 1995 to 2016. We use official records of disasters, from the digital archive of the Integrated Disaster Information System (S2ID) and time series of SACZ events, to calculate conditional probabilities of SACZ events, given the occurrence of disasters in the states of Southeast Brazil. We also analyze which types of natural disaster are most prevalent during SACZ events. The average probability of disaster occurrence, given the presence of the SACZ in the Southeast Brazil, is 24%, while the average conditional probability of SACZ occurrence, given a disaster in the Southeast, is 48%. For each state in Southeast Brazil, the probabilities are higher for Espírito Santo (60%), followed by Minas Gerais (50%), Rio de Janeiro (40%) and São Paulo (31%). These results evidence the vulnerability of Southeast Brazil associated with intense or persistent rainfall typical of the SACZ phenomenon.

南大西洋辐合带 (SACZ) 是一种典型的夏季大气现象，其中的星云带可能会在巴西的许多地区造成强烈或持续的降雨。这一自然事件与人为干预之间的关联是发生洪水、山洪暴发、洪水和山体滑坡等社会和环境影响的主要因素。在这项工作中，我们客观地量化了 SACZ 与 1995 年至 2016 年巴西东南部自然灾害发生率之间的关系。我们使用灾害的官方记录，来自综合灾害信息系统 (S2ID) 的数字档案和时间序列SACZ 事件，在巴西东南部各州发生灾害的情况下，计算 SACZ 事件的条件概率。我们还分析了 SACZ 事件期间哪些类型的自然灾害最为普遍。在巴西东南部存在 SACZ 的情况下，灾害发生的平均概率为 24%，而在东南部发生灾害的情况下，SACZ 发生的平均条件概率为 48%。对于巴西东南部的每个州，圣埃斯皮里图 (60%) 的概率较高，其次是米纳斯吉拉斯州 (50%)、里约热内卢 (40%) 和圣保罗 (31%)。这些结果证明了巴西东南部的脆弱性与典型的 SACZ 现象的强降雨或持续降雨有关。是 48%。对于巴西东南部的每个州，圣埃斯皮里图 (60%) 的概率较高，其次是米纳斯吉拉斯州 (50%)、里约热内卢 (40%) 和圣保罗 (31%)。这些结果证明了巴西东南部的脆弱性与典型的 SACZ 现象的强降雨或持续降雨有关。是 48%。对于巴西东南部的每个州，圣埃斯皮里图 (60%) 的概率较高，其次是米纳斯吉拉斯州 (50%)、里约热内卢 (40%) 和圣保罗 (31%)。这些结果证明了巴西东南部的脆弱性与典型的 SACZ 现象的强降雨或持续降雨有关。