An epidemiological model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the herpes virus type 2, a sexually transmitted infectious disease. This model considers two states, susceptible and infected, divides the population into sexes, assumes only heterosexual contacts and includes different transmission rates depending on whether the transmission is woman–man or man–woman. Reported and prevalence series data are retrieved from several sources. We consider the inherent data survey errors and the sensitivity of the diagnosis tests (data uncertainty). To calibrate the model to the available data and their uncertainty, a novel technique is proposed in two steps: (1) the application of the estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) to find sets of model parameter values close to the data uncertainty and (2) the application of a selection algorithm to get a reduced number of model parameter values whose model outputs capture accurately the data uncertainty. Then, we check its robustness, and we provide a prediction of the evolution of the infected over the next 4 years. From the technical point of view, we conclude that the proposed technique to calibrate probabilistically the model is reliable and robust. Also, it is able to provide confidence intervals for the model parameter values and the predictions. From the medical point of view, the model returns that the transmission woman–man is higher than the man–woman, according to recent literature, and there is a mild increasing trend in the number of infected people over the next years.

中文翻译：

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2型单纯疱疹流行率的概率校准和短期预测：传播动力学建模方法

提出了一个流行病学模型来研究 2 型疱疹病毒（一种性传播传染病）的传播动力学。该模型考虑了易感和感染两种状态，将人口分为性别，仅假设异性接触，并包括不同的传播率，具体取决于传播是女性-男性还是男性-女性。从多个来源检索报告的和流行的系列数据。我们考虑了固有的数据调查误差和诊断测试的敏感性（数据不确定性）。为了根据可用数据及其不确定性校准模型，提出了一种新技术，分两个步骤：(1) 应用估计分布算法 (EDA) 来找到接近数据不确定性的模型参数值集； (2) 应用选择算法来获得数量减少的模型参数值，其模型输出准确捕获数据的不确定性。然后，我们检查其稳健性，并提供对未来 4 年感染者演变的预测。从技术的角度来看，我们得出的结论是，所提出的用于概率校准模型的技术是可靠且稳健的。此外，它能够为模型参数值和预测提供置信区间。根据最近的文献，从医学的角度来看，该模型返回女性-男性的传播高于男性-女性，