Aluminium is an energy intensive material with an environmental footprint strongly dependent on the electricity mix consumed by the smelting process. This study models prospective environmental impacts of primary aluminium production according to different integrated assessment modeling scenarios building on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their climate change mitigation scenarios. Results project a global average carbon intensity ranging between 8.6 and 18.0 kg CO₂ eq/kg in 2100, compared to 18.3 kg CO₂ eq/kg at present, that could be further reduced under mitigation scenarios. Co-benefits with other environmental indicators are observed. Scaling aluminium production impacts to the global demand shows total emission between 1250 and 1590 Gt CO₂ eq for baseline scenarios by 2050 while absolute decoupling is only achievable with stringent climate policy changing drastically the electricity mix. Achieving larger emission reductions will require circular strategies that go beyond primary material production itself and involve other stakeholders along the aluminium value chain.

铝是一种能源密集型材料，其环境足迹在很大程度上取决于冶炼过程消耗的电力组合。本研究根据基于共享社会经济途径的不同综合评估建模情景及其减缓气候变化情景，对原铝生产的预期环境影响进行建模。结果预测2100 年全球平均碳强度介于 8.6 至 18.0 kg CO ₂ eq/kg 之间，而目前为 18.3 kg CO ₂ eq/kg，在缓解情景下可以进一步降低。观察到与其他环境指标的共同利益。扩大铝生产对全球需求的影响显示总排放量在 1250 至 1590 Gt CO _{2 之间}到 2050 年基线情景的 eq，而绝对脱钩只有在严格的气候政策彻底改变电力组合的情况下才能实现。实现更大的减排将需要超越初级材料生产本身并让铝价值链上的其他利益相关者参与的循环战略。