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JUE Insight: Are City Centers Losing Their Appeal? Commercial Real Estate, Urban Spatial Structure, and COVID-19
Journal of Urban Economics ( IF 5.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-13 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103381
Stuart S. Rosenthal 1 , William C. Strange 2 , Joaquin A. Urrego 3
Affiliation  

This paper estimates the value firms place on access to city centers and how this has changed with COVID-19. Pre-COVID, across 89 U.S. urban areas, commercial rent on newly executed long-term leases declines 2.3 percent per mile from the city center and increases 8.4 percent with a doubling of zipcode employment density. These relationships are stronger for large, dense “transit cities” that rely heavily on subway and light rail. Post-COVID, the commercial rent gradient falls by roughly 15% in transit cities, and the premium for proximity to transit stops also falls. We do not see a corresponding decline in the commercial rent gradient in more car-oriented cities, but for all cities the rent premium associated with employment density declines sharply following the COVID-19 shock.



中文翻译:

JUE Insight:城市中心是否失去吸引力?商业房地产、城市空间结构和 COVID-19

本文估计了公司对进入市中心的价值以及 COVID-19 的变化情况。在 COVID 之前,在美国 89 个城市地区,新执行的长期租约的商业租金从市中心每英里下降 2.3%,随着邮政编码就业密度增加一倍,增长 8.4%。对于严重依赖地铁和轻轨的大型、密集的“交通城市”,这些关系更为牢固。COVID 之后,公交城市的商业租金梯度下降了大约 15%,靠近公交站点的溢价也下降了。我们没有看到更多以汽车为导向的城市的商业租金梯度相应下降,但对于所有城市来说,在 COVID-19 冲击之后,与就业密度相关的租金溢价急剧下降。

更新日期:2021-07-13
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