This paper estimates the effect of payroll tax cuts on firm-level employment and balance-sheet outcomes during economic downturns. We use two regional payroll tax cuts in Finland as well as the onset of the Great Recession to estimate the effect of the recession on firms treated by the payroll tax cuts compared to a similar control group. When implemented, prior to the Great Recession, we estimate that the payroll tax cuts had limited effects on employment and balance-sheet outcomes of firms located in the treated regions. However, when the recession starts, some of its negative effects were substantially hampered by the previously enacted payroll tax cuts in treated firms. These employment effects are exacerbated for men and low-skilled employees. We also find that sales and profits in treated firms respond differently in treated firms during the recession. We provide some evidence showing that firms that are liquidity constrained are the ones that exhibit the strongest response. This shows that payroll tax cuts can make firms more resilient during downturns, possibly by relaxing liquidity constraints.

本文估计了在经济低迷期间工资税减免对公司层面的就业和资产负债表结果的影响。我们使用芬兰的两次地区工资税减免以及大衰退的开始来估计经济衰退对与类似对照组相比的工资税减免所处理的公司的影响。在大衰退之前实施时，我们估计工资税减免对受治疗地区公司的就业和资产负债表结果的影响有限。然而，当经济衰退开始时，它的一些负面影响因先前对受治疗公司实施的工资税减免而受到严重阻碍。这些就业影响对男性和低技能员工来说更为严重。我们还发现，在经济衰退期间，被处理公司的销售额和利润对被处理公司的反应不同。我们提供了一些证据，表明流动性受限的公司表现出最强烈的反应。这表明削减工资税可以使企业在经济低迷时期更具弹性，这可能是通过放松流动性限制来实现的。