The signing of EU readmission agreements is commonly believed to lead to a higher rate of returns of migrants found ineligible to stay in Europe. By analysing the EU’s ‘return rate’ with the whole world over a period of 11 years (2008–18), this article argues that (formal or informal) EU readmission arrangements may have less impact than widely assumed. They often lead only to temporary increases in the return rates of third countries – if at all. Their relevance may have been overstated, even in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans, when looking at the return rates of neighbouring states without agreement. The return rates of third countries tend to follow regional dynamics. Most African states have converged at lower levels, irrespective of readmission cooperation with the EU. These regional trends imply a widening gap between regions with high and low EU return rates.

中文翻译：

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欧盟与第三国的“回归率”：为什么欧盟重新接纳协议没有太大影响

人们普遍认为，签署欧盟重新接纳协议会导致被认为没有资格留在欧洲的移民的更高回报率。通过分析欧盟在 11 年（2008-18 年）期间与全世界的“回归率”，本文认为（正式或非正式）欧盟重新接纳安排的影响可能比广泛假设的要小。它们通常只会导致第三国的退货率暂时增加——如果有的话。即使在东欧和西巴尔干地区，在没有达成协议的情况下查看邻国的回报率时，它们的相关性可能被夸大了。第三国的回报率往往跟随区域动态。无论与欧盟的重新接纳合作如何，大多数非洲国家都在较低水平上趋同。