The average prevalence of disability in most African countries is 10%, but for many it exceeds the global disability prevalence rate of 15%. The extent to which this disability capturing functional and activity limitations results in permanent job loss, lowered lifetime income and assets, in part, depends upon the extent to which the onset of limitations becomes permanent. In this paper, we use five rounds of longitudinal data from rural Malawi, a low-income African country with high prevalence of disability, to examine path dependence in activity limitations. We estimate a dynamic linear panel data model where the coefficient on the one-period lagged health outcome captures path dependence in limitations. Our preferred Arellano–Bover estimates show that males experience partial persistence in both the incidence and intensity of severe limitations and no persistence in other limitations. Females, on the other hand, exhibit no persistence in any type of limitations. Our findings have important policy implications for computing the long-term costs associated with onset of activity limitations as these costs can be moderated by the recovery exhibited in these limitations.

中文翻译：

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残疾的路径依赖


大多数非洲国家的平均残疾患病率为 10%，但许多国家的残疾患病率超过了全球 15%。这种功能和活动限制的残疾在多大程度上导致永久性失业、终生收入和资产降低，部分取决于限制发生永久性的程度。在本文中，我们使用马拉维农村地区（残疾患病率较高的低收入非洲国家）的五轮纵向数据来研究活动限制的路径依赖。我们估计了一个动态线性面板数据模型，其中一期滞后健康结果的系数捕获了限制中的路径依赖性。我们首选的阿雷拉诺-博弗估计表明，男性在严重限制的发生率和强度方面都经历了部分持续，而在其他限制方面没有持续存在。另一方面，女性则没有表现出任何类型的限制的持续性。我们的研究结果对于计算与活动限制开始相关的长期成本具有重要的政策意义，因为这些成本可以通过这些限制中表现出的恢复来缓和。