The health impacts of climate change are substantial and represent a primary motivating factor to mitigate climate change. However, the health impacts in economic models that estimate the social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO₂) have generally been made in isolation from health experts and have never been rigorously evaluated. Version 3.10 of the Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) model was used to estimate the health-based portion of current SC-CO₂ estimates across low-, middle-, and high-income regions. In addition to the base model, three additional experiments assessed the sensitivity of these estimates to changes in the socio-economic assumptions in the model. Economic impacts from adverse health outcomes represent ∼8.7% of current SC-CO₂ estimates. The majority of these health impacts (74%) were attributable to diarrhea mortality (from both low- and high-income regions) followed by diarrhea morbidity (12%) and malaria mortality (11%); no other health impact makes a meaningful contribution to SC-CO₂ estimates in current economic models. The results of the socio-economic experiments show that the health-based portion of SC-CO₂ estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions regarding income elasticity of health effects, income growth, and use of equity weights. Improving the health-based portion of SC-CO₂ estimates could have substantial impacts on magnitude of the SC-CO₂. Incorporating additional health impacts not previously included in estimates of SC-CO₂ will be a critical component of model updates. This effort will be most successful through coordination between economists and health researchers and should focus on updating the form and function of concentration-response functions.

中文翻译：

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估算二氧化碳社会成本的经济模型中包含的气候变化对健康的影响


气候变化对健康的影响是巨大的，是缓解气候变化的主要推动因素。然而，估计二氧化碳（SC-CO ₂ ）社会成本的经济模型中的健康影响通常是独立于健康专家得出的，并且从未经过严格评估。不确定性、谈判和分配框架 (FUND) 模型 3.10 版用于估算低、中和高收入地区当前 SC-CO ₂估算值中基于健康的部分。除了基本模型之外，另外三个实验还评估了这些估计值对模型中社会经济假设变化的敏感性。不良健康结果造成的经济影响占当前 SC-CO ₂估计值的 8.7%。这些健康影响大部分（74%）可归因于腹泻死亡率（来自低收入和高收入地区），其次是腹泻发病率（12%）和疟疾死亡率（11%）；在当前经济模型中，没有其他健康影响能够对 SC-CO ₂估计做出有意义的贡献。社会经济实验的结果表明，SC-CO ₂估计中基于健康的部分对有关健康影响的收入弹性、收入增长和股权权重的使用的假设高度敏感。改进 SC-CO ₂估算中基于健康的部分可能会对 SC-CO ₂的强度产生重大影响。纳入之前未包含在 SC-CO ₂估计中的其他健康影响将是模型更新的关键组成部分。 通过经济学家和健康研究人员之间的协调，这项努力将取得最大成功，并且应侧重于更新浓度反应函数的形式和功能。