International trade has improved living standards but has also become a major channel for spreading shocks on a global scale. The increasing relevance of intersectoral linkages and trade in intermediates renewed interest in input–output techniques. This paper enriches the literature on empirical trade models with an input–output/econometric approach including substitution effects and price spillovers. Our model shows that (a) trade elasticities and bilateral shares are not constant in time and differ across sectors and countries; (b) international price changes alter the relative competitiveness between competitors; (c) final demand components such as consumption and investment react to changes in international prices. Large multi-country shocks produce feedback effects in national economies as they adapt by import substitution across exporters, by changing the import content of domestic production and by adjusting final demand. These feedbacks affect the global demand producing an asymmetric non-zero-sum game.

国际贸易提高了生活水平，但也成为在全球范围内传播冲击的主要渠道。部门间联系和中间产品贸易的日益相关性重新引起了人们对投入产出技术的兴趣。本文通过包括替代效应和价格溢出在内的投入产出/计量经济学方法丰富了关于实证贸易模型的文献。我们的模型表明 (a) 贸易弹性和双边份额在时间上不是恒定的，并且因部门和国家而异；(b) 国际价格变化改变了竞争者之间的相对竞争力；(c) 消费和投资等最终需求组成部分对国际价格的变化作出反应。大规模的多国冲击在国民经济中产生反馈效应，因为它们通过出口商之间的进口替代来适应，通过改变国内生产的进口含量和调整最终需求。这些反馈会影响全球需求，从而产生一种非对称的非零和博弈。