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Hindcast of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood damage in Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey (2017) using SFINCS
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-13 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04922-3
A. Sebastian 1, 2 , D. J. Bader 3, 4 , J. D. Bricker 3 , S. G. J. Aarninkhof 3 , T. W. B. Leijnse 4 , C. M. Nederhoff 5
Affiliation  

As demonstrated by recent tropical cyclone events, including U.S. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria (2017), and Florence (2018), the destructive potential of flooding driven by wind, precipitation, and coastal surge coupled with growing exposure of people and property along coastlines is leading to unprecedented damage from coastal storms. In this paper, we demonstrate the ability of the recently developed Super-Fast INundation of CoastS (SFINCS) model to delineate the depth and extent of flooding during Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Texas. The model was validated against water level time-series at twenty-one United States Geological Survey (USGS) observation points and 115 high water mark locations. FEMA depth-damage curves were used to estimate building and content damages from the combined flood sources (e.g., pluvial, fluvial, and marine) and total losses are compared against insurance claims registered with the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and a depth grid produced during the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA). The results suggest that Harvey may have caused upwards of $8.3 billion USD in uninsured residential loss within the model domain. Comparison against FEMA’s PDA indicates that the SFINCS model predicts much larger total losses, indicating that the incorporation of spatially-distributed pluvial hazards into the modeling method is critical for identifying high-risk areas and supports the need for further flood risk analyses in the region.



中文翻译:

使用 SFINCS 对飓风哈维 (2017) 期间德克萨斯州休斯顿的雨洪、河流和沿海洪水造成的损失进行后报

最近的热带气旋事件,包括美国飓风哈维、艾尔玛和玛丽亚(2017 年)和佛罗伦萨(2018 年)表明,由风、降水和沿海浪涌驱动的洪水具有破坏性的潜力,同时沿线的人员和财产暴露在不断增加的风险中。海岸线正在导致沿海风暴造成前所未有的破坏。在本文中,我们展示了最近开发的海岸超快速淹没 (SFINCS) 模型在描绘德克萨斯州休斯顿哈维飓风期间洪水深度和范围的能力。该模型在 21 个美国地质调查局 (USGS) 观测点和 115 个高水位标记位置根据水位时间序列进行了验证。FEMA 深度-损害曲线用于估计综合洪水源(例如,雨洪、河流、和海洋)和总损失与美国国家洪水保险计划 (NFIP) 登记的保险索赔和美国联邦紧急事务管理局 (FEMA) 初步损害评估 (PDA) 期间生成的深度网格进行比较。结果表明,Harvey 可能在模型域内造成了超过 83 亿美元的未投保住宅损失。与 FEMA 的 PDA 进行比较表明,SFINCS 模型预测的总损失要大得多,这表明将空间分布的雨洪灾害纳入建模方法对于识别高风险区域至关重要,并支持对该地区进行进一步洪水风险分析的需要。联邦紧急事务管理局 (FEMA) 的初步损害评估 (PDA)。结果表明,Harvey 可能在模型域内造成了超过 83 亿美元的未投保住宅损失。与 FEMA 的 PDA 进行比较表明,SFINCS 模型预测的总损失要大得多,这表明将空间分布的雨洪灾害纳入建模方法对于识别高风险区域至关重要,并支持对该地区进行进一步洪水风险分析的需要。联邦紧急事务管理局 (FEMA) 的初步损害评估 (PDA)。结果表明,Harvey 可能在模型域内造成了超过 83 亿美元的未投保住宅损失。与 FEMA 的 PDA 进行比较表明,SFINCS 模型预测的总损失要大得多,这表明将空间分布的雨洪灾害纳入建模方法对于识别高风险区域至关重要,并支持对该地区进行进一步洪水风险分析的需要。

更新日期:2021-07-13
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