当前位置: X-MOL 学术Energy Strategy Rev. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Oil price and stock market behaviour in GCC countries: Do asymmetries and structural breaks matter?
Energy Strategy Reviews ( IF 8.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-12 , DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2021.100682
Ismail O. Fasanya 1 , Oluwatomisin J. Oyewole 2 , Oluwasegun B. Adekoya 2 , Fopesaye O. Badaru 2
Affiliation  

Although the relationship between the global oil and stock markets has been given extensive critical assessment in the literature, this study gives a re-examination of this nexus for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries with certain innovative contributions. We employ both the Symmetric ARDL by Pesaran et al. (2001) and Nonlinear ARDL by Shin et al. (2014) and we also account for structural breaks using the Bai and Perron (2003) test that allows for multiple structural changes in regression models. Using a weekly dataset from 1992-2016, we observe that most of the GCC stock markets respond asymmetrically to oil price. The need to account for structural breaks is also undeniably seen as the break dates are largely significant. We discovered some breaks which coincidentally correspond to the series of OPEC cuts of 1999, Asian demand soars of 2005 and global financial crisis of 2008, among others. Our robustness check suggests that global economic activity and geopolitical risks are very sensitive to oil price specification, however in a linear fashion which may change conclusions regarding the effect of oil price shocks on stock returns. In all, the findings of this study, especially the large asymmetric responses of the stock markets to oil price, have serious policy implications for the government of each country and potential investors because of their oil-dependent posture.



中文翻译:

海湾合作委员会国家的油价和股市行为:不对称和结构性断裂重要吗?

尽管文献中对全球石油和股票市场之间的关系进行了广泛的批判性评估,但本研究为海湾合作委员会国家重新审视了这种关系,并做出了某些创新贡献。我们同时使用了 Pesaran 等人的对称 ARDL。(2001) 和 Shin 等人的非线性 ARDL。(2014) 并且我们还使用 Bai 和 Perron (2003) 检验来解释结构性断裂,该检验允许回归模型中的多个结构变化。使用 1992 年至 2016 年的每周数据集,我们观察到大多数海湾合作委员会股票市场对油价的反应不对称。不可否认,也有必要考虑结构性中断,因为中断日期非常重要。我们发现了一些与 1999 年石油输出国组织 (OPEC) 减产系列相符的断裂,2005 年亚洲需求飙升和 2008 年全球金融危机等。我们的稳健性检验表明,全球经济活动和地缘政治风险对油价规格非常敏感,但以线性方式可能会改变有关油价冲击对股票回报影响的结论。总之,这项研究的结果,尤其是股市对油价的巨大不对称反应,对每个国家的政府和潜在投资者都有严重的政策影响,因为他们依赖石油。然而,以线性方式可能会改变有关石油价格冲击对股票回报影响的结论。总之,这项研究的结果,尤其是股市对油价的巨大不对称反应,对每个国家的政府和潜在投资者都有严重的政策影响,因为他们依赖石油。然而,以线性方式可能会改变有关石油价格冲击对股票回报影响的结论。总之,这项研究的结果,尤其是股市对油价的巨大不对称反应,对每个国家的政府和潜在投资者都有严重的政策影响,因为他们依赖石油。

更新日期:2021-07-12
down
wechat
bug