The primary prey of humpback whales in the southwestern Gulf of Maine is sand lance. Despite this established relationship, we lack models to further understand the influence of sand lance on humpback whales or to predict humpback abundance or distribution in response to climate-related changes in sand lance abundance or distribution. We used a subset of long-term standardized survey data (2013–2019) from Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary and a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to explore the influence of sand lance on humpback whales at multiple spatial and temporal scales while accounting for sampling variability and propagating uncertainty. We developed zero-inflated Poisson mixed effects models for both sand lance and humpbacks, using modelled sand lance abundance as a predictor in the whale model. Results showed a statistically clear positive correlation between sand lance and humpback whales. Regional mean abundances of both species increased from north to south, though site-level variation within regions showed more variability. Results suggest annual variation in abundance of both species, with potentially different influences. We demonstrate one management application of our method by examining entanglement risk for humpback whales. Whale aggregations were more likely to occur in a high density area of fixed fishing gear that overlaps with an area of higher sand lance abundance. Our work suggests that humpback whale distribution in the larger Gulf of Maine may be impacted by climate-related fluctuations in sand lance abundance. Predicting future distributions of humpback whales is important for ecosystem-based management, including mitigation of human impacts, and our work serves as a foundation for further model development.

缅因湾西南部座头鲸的主要猎物是沙枪鱼。尽管建立了这种关系，但我们缺乏模​​型来进一步了解沙枪对座头鲸的影响或预测座头鲸丰度或分布以响应与气候相关的沙枪丰度或分布变化。我们使用来自 Stellwagen Bank 国家海洋保护区的长期标准化调查数据（2013-2019）的子集和贝叶斯分层建模方法来探索沙枪在多个空间和时间尺度上对座头鲸的影响，同时考虑采样变异性和传播不确定性。我们为沙枪鱼和座头鲸开发了零膨胀泊松混合效应模型，使用建模的沙枪鱼丰度作为鲸鱼模型中的预测因子。结果表明，沙枪鱼和座头鲸之间在统计上明显呈正相关。这两种物种的区域平均丰度从北到南增加，尽管区域内的站点水平变化表现出更多的变异性。结果表明，这两种物种的丰度存在年度变化，可能具有不同的影响。我们通过检查座头鲸的纠缠风险来展示我们方法的一种管理应用。鲸鱼聚集更有可能发生在固定渔具的高密度区域，该区域与沙枪丰度较高的区域重叠。我们的工作表明，较大的缅因湾的座头鲸分布可能受到与气候相关的沙枪丰度波动的影响。预测座头鲸的未来分布对于基于生态系统的管理很重要，