Objective Ophthalmology is the busiest outpatient specialty with demand predicted to rise over 40% in the next 20 years. A significant increase in the number of trainee ophthalmologists is required to fill currently vacant consultant posts and meet the UK’s workforce demands by 2038. Our aim was to understand what determines success in ophthalmology training, in order to inform future ophthalmologists, refine recruitment and facilitate workforce planning. Methods and Analysis This was a retrospective longitudinal cohort study using routinely collected data available from UK Medical Education Database (UKMED) (). Data were analysed on 1350 candidates who had applied for ophthalmology specialty training (OST) between 2012 and 2018, as well as 495 candidates who had attempted Fellow of the Royal College of Ophthalmologists (FRCOphth) Part 1 between 2013 and 2018. Participants who had not obtained their primary medical qualification from the UK medical schools were excluded. Primary outcome measures included gaining a place on the OST programme and passing the FRCOphth Part 1 examination on first attempt. Results Higher education performance measure decile scores at medical school are strongly predictive in securing an OST post and passing the part 1 examination first time (p<0.001). Candidates who attempt FRCOphth Part 1 prior to their ST1 application are more likely to get a place on OST on first attempt. Socioeconomic factors, gender and ethnicity do not influence success in OST entry. Male trainees are more likely to pass FRCOphth Part 1 on their first attempt. Conclusion This study is the first quantitative assessment of the factors that determine success in OST recruitment and ophthalmology postgraduate examinations in the UK. Similar studies should be undertaken in all other medical and surgical specialties to understand what factors predict success. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as supplementary information.

中文翻译：

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眼科职业成功的预测因素（POCS）研究

Objective 眼科是最繁忙的门诊专科，预计未来 20 年需求将增长 40% 以上。需要大幅增加见习眼科医生的数量，以填补目前空缺的顾问职位，并在 2038 年之前满足英国的劳动力需求。我们的目标是了解决定眼科培训成功的因素，以便为未来的眼科医生提供信息、完善招聘并促进劳动力规划。方法和分析 这是一项回顾性纵向队列研究，使用英国医学教育数据库 (UKMED) 常规收集的数据（）。对 2012 年至 2018 年间申请眼科专业培训 (OST) 的 1350 名考生以及 2013 年至 2018 年间尝试过皇家眼科医师学院院士 (FRCOphth) 第 1 部分的 495 名考生的数据进行了分析。从英国医学院获得初级医学资格的人被排除在外。主要成果衡量标准包括在 OST 项目中获得一席之地以及首次通过 FRCOphth 第 1 部分考试。结果 医学院的高等教育表现衡量十分位数分数对于获得 OST 职位和首次通过第 1 部分考试有很强的预测性 (p<0.001)。在 ST1 申请之前尝试 FRCOphth 第 1 部分的考生更有可能在第一次尝试时获得 OST 的名额。社会经济因素、性别和种族不会影响 OST 录入的成功。男性学员更有可能在第一次尝试时通过 FRCOphth 第 1 部分。结论 这项研究是对英国 OST 招聘和眼科研究生考试成功决定因素的首次定量评估。应该在所有其他医学和外科专业中进行类似的研究，以了解哪些因素可以预测成功。与研究相关的所有数据都包含在文章中或作为补充信息上传。