Purpose

This paper aims to examine the impact of commodity price changes (crude oil, cocoa, coffee, cotton and gold) on the international market on development (development proxied by the human development index) (HDI) among emerging economies in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Design/methodology/approach

Empirical estimates verifying theorized relationships in question were performed using the two-step system generalized method of moments framework.

Findings

Results from the empirical estimates suggest that a percentage increase in the prices of crude oil, cocoa and gold in the world market have a significant positive influence on development among economies in the sub-region all things being equal; however, similar price changes in cotton and coffee showed a negative effect on development. Further empirical estimates suggest that the extent to which prices of key commodities such as crude oil, influence development in the sub-region benefit less from institutional variables such as government effectiveness, corruption control and political stability. The same institutional variables, however, were found to augment how changes in cocoa prices influence development among economies in the sub-region.

Originality/value

This study specifically examines the extent to which commodity price fluctuations impact a holistic measure of development, (HDI which inherently captures economic growth) among emerging economies such as those in the SSA region, and how such relationship may be moderated by conditions such as corruption control and government effectiveness. The review suggests that such a study is rare, did not find any specific empirical inquiry focusing on what this study is designed to accomplish. A major gap or deficit identified among most reviewed studies is the failure to verify how the surmised relationship between movements in prices of commodities traded on the international market and development is moderated by institutional factors such as corruption control, government effectiveness and political stability. This study specifically examines such interaction effects in its empirical analysis.

中文翻译：

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大宗商品价格波动与发展：新兴经济体的视角

目的

本文旨在研究商品价格变化（原油、可可、咖啡、棉花和黄金）对国际市场对撒哈拉以南非洲新兴经济体发展（人类发展指数代表的发展）（HDI）的影响（ SSA）。

设计/方法/方法

验证所讨论的理论关系的经验估计是使用矩框架的两步系统广义方法进行的。

发现

实证估计的结果表明，世界市场原油、可可和黄金价格的百分比上涨对次区域经济体的发展具有显着的积极影响。然而，棉花和咖啡的类似价格变化对发展产生了负面影响。进一步的经验估计表明，原油等主要商品的价格对次区域发展的影响程度从政府效率、腐败控制和政治稳定等制度变量中获益较少。然而，发现相同的制度变量增加了可可价格变化如何影响该次区域经济体的发展。

原创性/价值

本研究特别研究了商品价格波动对发展的整体衡量标准（HDI 本身反映经济增长）在 SSA 地区等新兴经济体中的影响程度，以及这种关系如何受到腐败控制等条件的缓和和政府效能。审查表明，这样的研究很少见，没有发现任何针对本研究旨在完成的具体实证调查。大多数审查研究中发现的一个主要差距或缺陷是未能验证国际市场上交易的商品价格变动与发展之间的推测关系如何受到腐败控制、政府效率和政治稳定等制度因素的缓和。