The risk of AIDS-related mortality increased dramatically throughout the 1990s. This paper updates previous work by Fortson (2011) to examine the impact of mortality risk on human capital investment during the deadliest period of the pandemic. We combine Demographic Health Survey data from 30 countries, across 60 survey waves, to generate a sample of over 1,300,000 observations. Cohort-specific analysis using the updated sample yields new evidence that the negative relationship between HIV prevalence and schooling steepened as mortality risk increased. The reduction in schooling is largest for women, and along the extensive margin of the schooling decision. The findings indicate that the decline in human capital investment associated with the HIV/AIDS pandemic prior to the availability of treatment was larger in magnitude than previously understood, but may be reversing rapidly as access to treatment is expanded.

中文翻译：

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艾滋病毒/艾滋病对撒哈拉以南非洲人力资本投资的影响：新证据

整个 1990 年代，与艾滋病相关的死亡风险急剧增加。本文更新了 Fortson (2011) 之前的工作，以研究在大流行最致命的时期死亡风险对人力资本投资的影响。我们结合来自 30 个国家/地区的 60 个调查波次的人口健康调查数据，生成超过 1,300,000 次观察的样本。使用更新后的样本进行的队列特定分析产生了新的证据，表明随着死亡风险的增加，艾滋病毒流行率与受教育程度之间的负相关关系变得更加陡峭。女性受教育的减少幅度最大，而且与受教育决定的差距很大。