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Costal sea level variability and extreme events in Moñitos, Cordoba, Colombian Caribbean Sea
Continental Shelf Research ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-12 , DOI: 10.1016/j.csr.2021.104489
Lida S. Genes , Rubén D. Montoya , Andrés F. Osorio

Flooding episodes occur frequently in the Colombian Caribbean and cause damage to coastal settlements. However, there is little knowledge about these episodes and about how changes in associated variables affect coastal flooding. This paper presents the results obtained from analyzing the temporal variability of flood levels in Moñitos-Córdoba on the Colombian Caribbean coast, as well as the contribution their components make to different time scales. To achieve this, the total sea level (TSL) was estimated indirectly as the sum of the variables involved (sea level anomalies, astronomical tide, storm surge and wave runup). These variables were obtained by applying numerical and empirical modeling using satellite altimetry data, tidal modeled data and wind, waves and atmospheric pressure from reanalysis. Data Trends and contributions were analyzed using statistical methods, including variance analysis, exceedance distributions, linear regressions, Sen-Slope and the Mann Kendall test. The results indicate that the total sea level has a semi-annual cycle with its highest maximum levels in the months of December to March and its lowest maximum levels in the months of April and September. The total sea level variability in Moñitos is dominated by the runup component at monthly, intra-annual and inter-annual scales, while at longer-term timescales (2–7 years and greater) variability is dominated by the sea level anomaly. Runup is the greatest contributor to the total sea level, followed by the sea level anomaly in average conditions and the astronomical tide in extreme conditions. There was a trend of increasing total sea level, related to the trend in sea level anomaly, with a consequent increasing trend of frequency and magnitude of extreme sea levels.



中文翻译:

莫尼托斯、科尔多瓦、哥伦比亚加勒比海的沿海海平面变化和极端事件

哥伦比亚加勒比地区经常发生洪水,对沿海定居点造成破坏。然而,人们对这些事件以及相关变量的变化如何影响沿海洪水知之甚少。本文介绍了分析哥伦比亚加勒比海岸莫尼托斯-科尔多瓦洪水水位随时间变化的结果,以及它们的组成部分对不同时间尺度的贡献。为了实现这一目标,总海平面 (TSL) 被间接估计为所涉及的变量(海平面异常、天文潮汐、风暴潮和波浪上升)的总和。这些变量是通过使用卫星测高数据、潮汐模拟数据以及风、波浪和再分析的大气压力应用数值和经验建模获得的。使用统计方法分析数据趋势和贡献,包括方差分析、超出分布、线性回归、Sen-Slope 和 Mann Kendall 检验。结果表明,总海平面具有半年周期,12-3月最高,4-9月最低。莫尼托斯的总海平面变率在月、年内和年际尺度上由上升分量主导,而在长期时间尺度(2-7 年及更长)的变化则由海平面异常主导。上升是海平面总和的最大贡献者,其次是平均条件下的海平面异常和极端条件下的天文潮汐。总海平面呈上升趋势,

更新日期:2021-08-21
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