Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modeling. But reflection on how and to what degree knowledge is effectively integrated during this endeavor does not generally take place. In this paper, we reflect on the performance of a specific hybrid scenario approach (qualitative Cross-Impact Balance analysis, CIB, linked with quantitative energy models) concerning knowledge integration through 11 different process steps. In order to guide the scenario community in applying this approach, we reflect on general methodological features as well as different design options. We conceptualize different forms of interdisciplinary knowledge integration (compiling, combining and synthesizing) and analyze how and to what degree knowledge about society and uncertainty are integrated into scenario process and products. In addition, we discuss trade-offs regarding design choices and forms of knowledge integration. On the basis of three case studies, we identify two general designs of linking which build on each other (basic and extended design) and which differ in essence regarding the balance of power between the CIB and the energy modeling. Ex post assessment of the form of interdisciplinary knowledge integration in each step revealed that specific method properties of CIB as well as the interaction with additional quantitative as well as specific qualitative methods foster distinct forms of knowledge integration. The specific roles assigned to CIB in the hybrid scenario process can also influence the form of knowledge integration. In this study, we use a joint process scheme linking qualitative context scenarios with energy modeling. By applying our conceptualization of different forms of knowledge integration we analyze the designs’ respective potential for and respective effects on knowledge integration. Consequently, our findings can give guidance to those who are designing their own hybrid scenario processes. As this is an explorative study, it would be useful to further test our hypotheses in different hybrid scenario designs. Finally, we note that at some points in the process a more precise differentiation of three forms of knowledge integration would have been useful and propose to further differentiate and detail them in future research.

中文翻译：

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将定性情景与定量能源模型联系起来：不同方法设计中的知识整合

将定性情景与定量模型联系起来是将未来可能的社会环境的假设整合到建模中的常用方法。但是，通常不会反思在这一努力中如何以及在何种程度上有效地整合知识。在本文中，我们通过 11 个不同的流程步骤反思了有关知识整合的特定混合情景方法（定性交叉影响平衡分析，CIB，与定量能量模型相关联）的性能。为了指导场景社区应用这种方法，我们反思了一般的方法特征以及不同的设计选项。我们将不同形式的跨学科知识整合（编译、结合和综合）并分析有关社会和不确定性的知识如何以及在多大程度上融入情景过程和产品。此外，我们还讨论了有关设计选择和知识整合形式的权衡。在三个案例研究的基础上，我们确定了两种相互建立的通用链接设计（基本设计和扩展设计），它们在 CIB 和能源建模之间的功率平衡方面存在本质差异。在每个步骤中对跨学科知识整合形式的事后评估表明，CIB 的特定方法属性以及与其他定量和特定定性方法的相互作用促进了不同形式的知识整合。在混合场景过程中分配给 CIB 的特定角色也会影响知识集成的形式。在这项研究中，我们使用了一个联合过程方案，将定性上下文场景与能量建模联系起来。通过应用我们对不同形式的知识整合的概念化，我们分析了设计各自对知识整合的潜力和各自的影响。因此，我们的发现可以为那些正在设计自己的混合场景流程的人提供指导。由于这是一项探索性研究，因此在不同的混合情景设计中进一步检验我们的假设将很有用。最后，我们注意到在过程中的某些点，对三种知识整合形式进行更精确的区分是有用的，并建议在未来的研究中进一步区分和详细说明它们。