Climate shifts and concomitant weather extremes such as extended droughts make it difficult to determine the best seed sources for reforestation. Seed source selection based on current climate conditions avoids further disrupting biotic interactions that may confer ecosystem resilience, but seed source selection could also draw from populations adapted to anticipated future climate conditions. Knowledge of relationships between seed sources and adaptation to climatic variables helps evaluate options. This study used four common gardens of Pacific madrone (Arbutus menziesii Pursh) to model tree performance in height growth, dieback, mortality, and, at one site, phenology, using differences in abiotic variables from the tree’s geographic origins and the planting location. While the degree of variation explained by even the best models was relatively low, there were some trends. Patterns of growth and mortality differed across common garden sites, but the distance seeds were moved to the common garden site, seed source ecoregion, and the difference in the length of frost-free period between a seed source’s site of origin and the common garden site were in the best models for growth and mortality. Differences in mean summer precipitation, an indication of potential drought stress, were only in the best models for growth at the wettest and driest common garden sites. Trees more local to a common garden site generally had higher growth, and sometimes lower mortality. However, some Willamette Valley trees not local to a common garden site had relatively greater growth and low mortality so could be good candidates for broader seed movement. The abiotic factors that best explain growth and mortality were similar in less stressful and more stressful years, although models for stress years included more abiotic variables. Abiotic variables were better at explaining timing of spring leaf flush than the performance metrics, and spring flush did not correlate well to growth, dieback, or mortality. Our results support the importance of abiotic factors in predicting growth, mortality, and phenology in Pacific madrone, but their predictive capacity and relative importance depends on the site and may vary even for nearby sites.

气候变化和伴随的极端天气（如长期干旱）使确定重新造林的最佳种子来源变得困难。基于当前气候条件的种子源选择避免了进一步破坏可能赋予生态系统恢复力的生物相互作用，但种子源选择也可以从适应预期未来气候条件的种群中汲取。了解种子来源与适应气候变量之间的关系有助于评估选项。本研究使用了四种常见的太平洋马德龙 ( Arbutus menziesii)Pursh）利用树木地理起源和种植地点的非生物变量差异来模拟树木在高度生长、枯死、死亡率以及在一个地点的物候学方面的表现。虽然即使是最好的模型所解释的变异程度也相对较低，但还是存在一些趋势。不同园地的生长和死亡率模式不同，但种子被转移到普通园地、种源生态区的距离以及种子源起源地和普通园地之间无霜期长度的差异处于生长和死亡率的最佳模型中。夏季平均降水量的差异是潜在干旱压力的一个指标，仅出现在最潮湿和最干燥的常见花园地点的最佳生长模型中。更靠近公共花园地点的树木通常具有更高的生长速度，有时死亡率更低。然而，一些威拉米特谷的树木不是普通花园所在地的本地树木，其生长速度相对较大，死亡率较低，因此可能是更广泛的种子运动的良好候选者。最能解释增长和死亡率的非生物因素在压力较小和压力较大的年份是相似的，尽管压力年份的模型包含更多的非生物变量。与性能指标相比，非生物变量更能解释春叶潮红的时间，并且春季潮红与生长、枯死或死亡率的相关性不佳。我们的结果支持非生物因素在预测 Pacific madrone 的生长、死亡率和物候方面的重要性，