ABSTRACT This analysis draws from security and state spending data to measure the human security experience in South Sudan. The results show a more volatile security environment following independence. Defence expenditure and human security, as measured in the number of insecurity episodes, are unrelated. Descriptive evidence indicates that human security and security expenditure tend to vary unpredictably over time, a signal that security sector spending is unresponsive to the country's security predicaments. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models suggest the same: security sector spending does not contain local insecurity. Instead, more defence investment seems to correlate with insecurity; an additional 1% spent on security translates to at least 60 deaths. This finding reflects the importance of reviewing South Sudan's security sector in order to properly situate the reforms currently outlined in Chapter II of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). As these reforms get implemented, security sector expenditures need strict oversight, with improved accountability measures integrated to minimise inefficiencies and foster sustainable socioeconomic and security results. Lastly, recent improvements in the security situation, as represented by significant reductions in violence, should be strategically leveraged to enable greater public confidence and trust in the recently inaugurated R-ARCSS.

中文翻译：

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2006-2018 年南苏丹安全部门支出和公共安全

摘要 该分析利用安全和国家支出数据来衡量南苏丹的人类安全经验。结果表明，独立后的安全环境更加不稳定。国防开支和人类安全，以不安全事件的次数来衡量，是无关的。描述性证据表明，人类安全和安全支出往往会随着时间的推移发生不可预测的变化，这表明安全部门的支出对国家的安全困境没有反应。普通最小二乘法 (OLS) 模型表明相同：安全部门支出不包含局部不安全感。相反，更多的国防投资似乎与不安全有关。额外 1% 的安全支出相当于至少 60 人死亡。这一发现反映了审查南苏丹的重要性 的安全部门，以适当定位目前在《解决南苏丹冲突重振协议》(R-ARCSS) 第二章中概述的改革。随着这些改革的实施，安全部门的支出需要受到严格的监督，并整合改进的问责措施，以最大限度地减少低效率并促进可持续的社会经济和安全成果。最后，应战略性地利用最近安全局势的改善（以暴力显着减少为代表），以增强公众对最近成立的 R-ARCSS 的信心和信任。安全部门的支出需要严格监督，并整合改进的问责措施，以尽量减少低效率并促进可持续的社会经济和安全成果。最后，应战略性地利用最近安全局势的改善（以暴力显着减少为代表），以增强公众对最近成立的 R-ARCSS 的信心和信任。安全部门的支出需要严格监督，并整合改进的问责措施，以尽量减少低效率并促进可持续的社会经济和安全成果。最后，应战略性地利用最近安全局势的改善（以暴力显着减少为代表），以增强公众对最近成立的 R-ARCSS 的信心和信任。