Observed surface warming trends over the Arabian Peninsula are a factor of 1.4–2.1 greater than the tropical mean and a factor of 2.3–3.1 greater than the global mean. The primary reason for the amplified warming is the absence of latent cooling over the dry surface, not trends in net longwave heating or solar fluxes.

Well-validated regional model simulations with 30-km resolution are used to evaluate the implications of the amplified warming for the regional climate through the twenty-first century. Projected warming rates are similar to the observed ongoing warming, and low-level specific humidity increases by 50% by the end of the century. Precipitation increases occur only in summer in the southwest corner of the peninsula in association with enhanced orographic precipitation. Concurrent evaporation increases ameliorate and can even reverse increases in surface water availability associated with higher rainfall. A strengthening of the low-level negative meridional geopotential height gradient between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa strengthens the zonal branch of the Somali jet, increasing westerly moisture transport into the Ethiopian Highlands and enhancing summer rainfall in northern Ethiopia by 20% at mid-century and by 35% by the end of the century. Confidence in the results is supported by the similarity of the projections with observed modes of variability and current trends.

观测到的阿拉伯半岛地表变暖趋势比热带平均值高 1.4-2.1 倍，比全球平均值高 2.3-3.1 倍。升温加剧的主要原因是干燥表面没有潜在的冷却，而不是净长波加热或太阳通量的趋势。

分辨率为 30 公里的经过充分验证的区域模型模拟被用于评估 21 世纪升温加剧对区域气候的影响。预计的升温速率与观察到的持续升温相似，到本世纪末，低水平比湿度将增加 50%。降水增加仅发生在半岛西南角的夏季，与地形降水增加有关。并发蒸发增加改善甚至可以逆转与较高降雨量相关的地表水可用性的增加。阿拉伯半岛和非洲之角之间的低层负经向位势高度梯度的加强加强了索马里急流的纬向分支，增加向埃塞俄比亚高地的西风水分输送，并使埃塞俄比亚北部的夏季降雨量在本世纪中叶增加 20%，到本世纪末增加 35%。预测与观察到的变异模式和当前趋势的相似性支持了对结果的信心。