We investigate the welfare and trade impacts of U.S. retaliatory tariffs from the Airbus WTO dispute on EU olive oil, using a calibrated multi-market partial-equilibrium displacement model. The model accounts for four differentiated types of retail olive oil in the U.S. market. U.S. retailer-blenders source olive oil in eight foreign markets and domestically and for two qualities of oil (virgin, other), and in two shipping container types (non-bulk, bulk). We consider two main scenarios: A 100% tariff on all EU olive oils as initially announced by the USTR, and the actual and final 25% tariff on non-bulk Spanish olive oil. The first scenario leads to significant loss of welfare for U.S. consumers of $924 million, much reduced EU olive oil exports to the United States ($360 million), and increased imports from non-EU sources ($90 million). The second scenario has much more muted effects, with mitigated welfare losses for U.S. consumers ($55 million), strong decreases of Spanish olive oil exports shipped in smaller containers, much larger exports of bulk Spanish olive oil and other olive oils. Aggregate EU exports to the United States are slightly lower given the substantial trade diversion induced by the targeted tariff. We discuss the political economy of the contrasting initial announcement and limited implemented retaliation.

中文翻译：

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美国对欧盟橄榄油征收报复性关税的贸易和福利影响

我们使用校准的多市场部分均衡置换模型调查了美国报复性关税对欧盟橄榄油的空中客车世贸组织争端的福利和贸易影响。该模型解释了美国市场上四种不同类型的零售橄榄油。美国零售商混合商在八个国外市场和国内市场采购橄榄油，以两种质量的油（初榨、其他）和两种运输容器类型（非散装、散装）采购。我们考虑两种主要情况：美国贸易代表办公室最初宣布对所有欧盟橄榄油征收 100% 的关税，以及对非散装西班牙橄榄油征收 25% 的实际和最终关税。第一种情况导致美国消费者的福利损失达 9.24 亿美元，欧盟对美国的橄榄油出口大幅减少（3.6 亿美元），从非欧盟来源的进口增加（9000 万美元）。第二种情况的影响要小得多，美国消费者的福利损失减轻（5500 万美元），用较小集装箱运输的西班牙橄榄油出口大幅减少，散装西班牙橄榄油和其他橄榄油的出口量大幅增加。鉴于目标关税导致大量贸易转移，欧盟对美国的出口总额略有下降。我们讨论了对比鲜明的初始公告和有限实施报复的政治经济学。鉴于目标关税导致大量贸易转移，欧盟对美国的出口总额略有下降。我们讨论了对比鲜明的初始公告和有限实施报复的政治经济学。鉴于目标关税导致大量贸易转移，欧盟对美国的出口总额略有下降。我们讨论了对比鲜明的初始公告和有限实施报复的政治经济学。