Is the timing of food products going on sale, in the form of temporary price reductions, random or predictable? More specifically, are products more likely to go on sale the longer they remain non-promoted? We investigate the nature and timing of sales discounts using a large database based on weekly supermarket scanner prices covering 500 products for 137 weeks in the largest seven national retail chains in the UK. Our duration analysis of regular price spells reveals that discounting for a wide range of food products is more likely the longer they remain without a sale. However, critical differences exist between retailers following Hi-Lo or every-day-low-pricing policies, while the time-dependent pattern varies considerably across product categories, brand status and discount depth.

中文翻译：

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食品价格促销是否可以预测？超市折扣的危害函数

食品销售的时间，以临时降价的形式，是随机的还是可预测的？更具体地说，产品保持不促销的时间越长，就越有可能开始销售吗？我们使用一个大型数据库调查销售折扣的性质和时间，该数据库基于英国最大的七家全国零售连锁店的 137 周内 500 种产品的每周超市扫描价格。我们对正常价格周期的持续时间分析表明，对各种食品进行折扣的可能性越大，它们保持不销售的时间就越长。然而，遵循 Hi-Lo 或每日低价政策的零售商之间存在重大差异，而时间相关模式在产品类别、品牌地位和折扣深度方面差异很大。