Time-lagged correlations of pre-monsoon precipitation in the Indochina Peninsula confirmed in a large ensemble simulation dataset,International Journal of Climatology

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Time-lagged correlations of pre-monsoon precipitation in the Indochina Peninsula confirmed in a large ensemble simulation dataset
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-09 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7292
Rattana Chhin _{1,

2,

3} , Sokly Siev _{2,

4} , Shigeo Yoden _{1,

5}

Affiliation

Statistically significant time-lagged relationship of pre-monsoon precipitation in Indochina Peninsula (ICP) with large-scale feature over the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which was recently found in observational datasets by the authors, is investigated with a large-ensemble (100 ensembles) simulation database called “Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change” (d4PDF). Two different strategies were taken to perform Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on the large-ensemble dataset, namely statistics of the analysis results for each ensemble member separately and analysis on the 6,000-year data (100 times 60 years). d4PDF can reproduce well the climatological characteristics of the observed pre-monsoon precipitation. Significant time-lagged correlations of several climate indices related to sea surface temperature (SST) with the pre-monsoon precipitation in ICP as obtained in the observation are confirmed in d4PDF for both strategies of EOF analyses on each ensemble member and on 6,000-year data. The climate simulation in d4PDF can capture the lag-to-lag variations of the time-lagged correlation patterns very well, though it is weaker. The time-lagged regressions of SST and zonal wind at 850 hPa upon the first principal component (PC1) time-series of the EOF analysis of the pre-monsoon precipitation over ICP are investigated in low latitudes over the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The observed time-lagged regression features are also confirmed in d4PDF dataset; the significant regression areas expand larger and significant time lags become longer than the observation, especially in the case of 6,000-year data, due to enough number of samples. Cluster analysis on the regression maps shows that the obtained groups with larger numbers of ensemble members are closer to the observation than the other groups. The randomness of time-lagged regression feature among the 100 ensemble members is not directly related to the randomness of the SST perturbation introduced in the lower boundary condition for the ensemble simulation of d4PDF.

中文翻译：

印度支那半岛季风前降水的时滞相关性在大型集合模拟数据集中得到证实

作者最近在观测数据集中发现了印度支那半岛 (ICP) 季风前降水与太平洋和印度洋大尺度特征的统计显着时滞关系，用大型集合（100 个集合) 模拟数据库，称为“未来气候变化政策决策数据库”(d4PDF)。采用两种不同的策略对大型集合数据集进行经验正交函数（EOF）分析，分别对每个集合成员的分析结果进行统计和对6000年数据（100乘以60年）进行分析。d4PDF可以很好地再现观测到的季风前降水的气候特征。在 d4PDF 中证实了在观测中获得的与海面温度 (SST) 相关的几个气候指数与 ICP 中的季风前降水的显着时滞相关性，用于每个集合成员的 EOF 分析策略和 6,000 年数据. d4PDF 中的气候模拟可以很好地捕捉时滞相关模式的滞后变化，尽管它较弱。在太平洋和印度洋的低纬度地区研究了 ICP 季风前降水 EOF 分析的第一主成分 (PC1) 时间序列的 SST 和纬向风在 850 hPa 的时滞回归。观察到的时滞回归特征也在 d4PDF 数据集中得到证实；由于样本数量足够多，显着回归区域扩展得更大，显着时滞变得比观测更长，尤其是在 6,000 年数据的情况下。回归图上的聚类分析表明，与其他组相比，获得的具有大量集成成员的组更接近观察值。100 个集合成员中时滞回归特征的随机性与 d4PDF 集合模拟的下边界条件中引入的 SST 扰动的随机性没有直接关系。

更新日期：2021-07-09

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