The literature on migration during armed conflict is abundant. Yet, the questions of highest policy relevance—how many people will leave because of a conflict and how many more people will be living outside a country because of a conflict—are not well addressed. This article explores these questions using an agent-based model, a computational simulation that allows us to connect armed conflict to individual behavioral changes and then to aggregate migration flows and migrant stocks. With detailed data from Nepal during the 1996–2006 conflict, we find that out-migration rates actually decrease on average, largely due to a prior decrease in return migration. Regardless, the stock of migrants outside the country increases modestly during that period. Broadly, this study demonstrates that population dynamics are inherent to and necessary for understanding conflict-related migration. We conclude with a discussion of the generalizability and policy implications of this study.

中文翻译：

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武装冲突如何影响移民

关于武装冲突期间移民的文献非常丰富。然而，政策相关性最高的问题——有多少人会因为冲突而离开，还有多少人会因为冲突而生活在国外。冲突——没有得到很好的解决。本文使用基于代理的模型探讨这些问题，这是一种计算模拟，使我们能够将武装冲突与个人行为变化联系起来，然后汇总移民流量和移民存量。根据 1996 年至 2006 年冲突期间尼泊尔的详细数据，我们发现外迁率实际上平均下降，这主要是由于先前返回迁移的减少。无论如何，在此期间，国外的移民存量略有增加。从广义上讲，这项研究表明，人口动态是理解与冲突相关的移民所固有的和必要的。我们最后讨论了这项研究的普遍性和政策含义。