In this paper we develop an analysis of the efficiency of the expansion strategies to be followed to attain the emissions targets established by the European Commission in the Energy Roadmap 2050. A multi-stage investment model in generating and storage capacity from the point of view of a central planner is presented, considering long-term uncertainties in the decision-making process, such as the demand growth and the investment and fuel costs, and short-term variability. To evaluate the wellness of the expansion strategies according to the CO₂ emissions generated and the total cost, second-order stochastic dominance constraints are introduced in the model. This approach allows to obtain better expansion strategies enforcing acceptable distributions of CO₂ emissions. The numerical study is carried out considering the case of the European power system. The predictions and suggestions made by the European Commission towards 2050 are the basis to define the benchmark solutions, whose outcomes are analysed. The results obtained from this study highlight that a renewable capacity of at least 2900 GW is needed to attain a net zero CO₂ emission European power system. The strategy based on carbon capture and storage does not reduce effectively CO₂ emissions while it represents an expensive alternative. Including stochastic dominance in the optimization model allows to obtain less expensive alternative expansion strategies with comparatively lower CO₂ emissions in the worst scenarios.

在本文中，我们分析了为实现欧盟委员会在 2050 年能源路线图中制定的排放目标而应遵循的扩张策略的效率。 从发电和存储容量的角度来看的多阶段投资模型考虑到决策过程中的长期不确定性，例如需求增长、投资和燃料成本以及短期可变性，提出了一个中央计划者。为了根据产生的 CO ₂排放量和总成本评估扩张策略的健康度，模型中引入了二阶随机优势约束。这种方法允许获得更好的膨胀策略，强制执行可接受的 CO ₂分布排放。数值研究是在考虑欧洲电力系统的情况下进行的。欧盟委员会对 2050 年的预测和建议是定义基准解决方案的基础，并对其结果进行分析。从这项研究中获得的结果强调，要实现净零 CO ₂排放的欧洲电力系统，至少需要 2900 GW 的可再生能源容量。基于碳捕获和储存的策略并不能有效减少 CO ₂排放，但它代表了一种昂贵的替代方案。在优化模型中包括随机优势允许在最坏的情况下获得具有相对较低的 CO ₂排放的更便宜的替代扩张策略。