Is it possible to measure the dispersion of ex ante chances (i.e., chances “before the event”) among people, be it gambling, health, or social opportunities? We explore this question and provide some tools, including a statistical test, to evidence the actual dispersion of ex ante chances in various areas, with a focus on chronic diseases. Using the principle of maximum entropy, we derive the distribution of the risk of becoming ill in the global population as well as in the population of affected people. We find that affected people are either at very low risk, like the overwhelming majority of the population, but still were unlucky to become ill, or are at extremely high risk and were bound to become ill.

中文翻译：

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幸运还是幸运，这是个问题

是否有可能衡量人们之间的事前机会（即“事前”机会）的分散性，无论是赌博、健康还是社交机会？我们探讨了这个问题并提供了一些工具，包括统计检验，以证明不同领域的事前机会的实际分布，重点是慢性病。使用最大熵原理，我们推导出全球人口以及受影响人群中患病风险的分布。我们发现受影响的人要么像绝大多数人口一样处于非常低的风险中，但仍然不幸生病，要么处于极高的风险中并且必然会生病。