Using a novel, nationally representative dataset containing the expectations of over 300,000 Australians, individuals are shown to form expectations in a manner inadequately explained by popular expectation mechanisms. Approximately one in five individuals form inflation expectations that are negatively related to their own-income changes, even after accounting for their level of optimism regarding future economic conditions and their observation of economic news. These individuals are more likely to be engaged in manual labour and to be on lower income brackets. The inflation expectations of such individuals rise, even as Phillips curve predictions of inflation fall. The findings are particularly important for inflation dynamics during economic downturns when large numbers of consumers are likely to heavily increase their inflation expectations, potentially resulting in large inflation surprises.

中文翻译：

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消费者通胀预期、收入变化和经济衰退

使用包含超过 300,000 名澳大利亚人的期望的新颖的、具有全国代表性的数据集，个人被证明以流行的期望机制无法充分解释的方式形成期望。大约五分之一的人形成的通胀预期与他们自己的收入变化呈负相关，即使考虑到他们对未来经济状况的乐观程度和对经济新闻的观察。这些人更有可能从事体力劳动并且收入较低。这些人的通胀预期上升，即使菲利普斯曲线对通胀的预测下降。当大量消费者可能大幅提高通胀预期时，这些发现对于经济低迷时期的通胀动态尤为重要，