Mozambique has historically been prone to natural disasters due to its geographical location, but over the past 20 years the intensity and frequency of droughts, floods and cyclones has increased, negatively affecting the entire economy, particularly agriculture. These impacts are expected to worsen, as climatic conditions become hotter and drier. This study estimates the impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector and household welfare in Mozambique using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. Specifically, the study investigates the impact of climate change on agricultural production, looking at implications for various crops and regions in the country. It also reports climate change impacts on both urban and rural household welfare. A probabilistic approach considering a distribution of climate shocks under two global mitigation futures (i.e. unconstrained emissions and level 1 stabilization) is used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the economy, providing a range for the potential impact of climate change and the uncertainties related to it. Climate impacts are considered through five key channels: agriculture, roads, hydropower, sea-level rise and cyclones. The analysis shows that acute negative impacts are experienced in the agricultural sector, particularly for maize and cassava as crop yields decrease. Successful global mitigation efforts of reducing CO₂ concentration to 560 ppm by 2100 (L1S) decreases the degree of uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the Mozambican economy, as the GDP is expected to increase up to USD 6.0 billion.

莫桑比克历史上因其地理位置而容易发生自然灾害，但在过去 20 年中，干旱、洪水和飓风的强度和频率有所增加，对整个经济，尤其是农业产生了负面影响。随着气候条件变得越来越热和干燥，这些影响预计会恶化。本研究使用动态可计算一般均衡模型估计气候变化对莫桑比克农业部门和家庭福利的影响。具体而言，该研究调查了气候变化对农业生产的影响，着眼于对该国各种作物和地区的影响。它还报告了气候变化对城市和农村家庭福利的影响。考虑气候冲击在两个全球减缓未来（即无约束排放和 1 级稳定）下的分布的概率方法用于评估气候变化对经济的影响，为气候变化的潜在影响和相关的不确定性提供一个范围到它。通过五个主要渠道考虑气候影响：农业、道路、水电、海平面上升和飓风。分析表明，随着作物产量下降，农业部门受到了严重的负面影响，特别是对玉米和木薯。成功的全球减排努力减少二氧化碳 为气候变化的潜在影响和与之相关的不确定性提供一个范围。通过五个主要渠道考虑气候影响：农业、道路、水电、海平面上升和飓风。分析表明，随着作物产量下降，农业部门受到了严重的负面影响，特别是对玉米和木薯。成功的全球减排努力减少二氧化碳 为气候变化的潜在影响和与之相关的不确定性提供一个范围。通过五个主要渠道考虑气候影响：农业、道路、水电、海平面上升和飓风。分析表明，随着作物产量下降，农业部门受到了严重的负面影响，特别是对玉米和木薯。成功的全球减排努力减少二氧化碳₂浓度到 2100 年 (L1S) 达到 560 ppm，降低了气候变化对莫桑比克经济影响的不确定性程度，因为预计 GDP 将增加至 60 亿美元。