Groin Wound Infection after Vascular Exposure (GIVE) Risk Prediction Models: Development, Internal Validation, and Comparison with Existing Risk Prediction Models Identified in a Systematic Literature Review,European Journal of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery

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Groin Wound Infection after Vascular Exposure (GIVE) Risk Prediction Models: Development, Internal Validation, and Comparison with Existing Risk Prediction Models Identified in a Systematic Literature Review
European Journal of Vascular and Endovascular Surgery ( IF 5.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-08 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ejvs.2021.05.009
Brenig L Gwilym ₁ , Graeme K Ambler ₂ , Athanasios Saratzis ₃ , David C Bosanquet ₁ , ₄

Affiliation

Objective

This study aimed to develop and internally validate risk prediction models for predicting groin wound surgical site infections (SSIs) following arterial intervention and to evaluate the utility of existing risk prediction models for this outcome.

Methods

Data from the Groin wound Infection after Vascular Exposure (GIVE) multicentre cohort study were used. The GIVE study prospectively enrolled 1 039 consecutive patients undergoing an arterial procedure through 1 339 groin incisions. An overall SSI rate of 8.6% per groin incision, and a deep/organ space SSI rate of 3.8%, were reported. Eight independent predictors of all SSIs, and four independent predictors of deep/organ space SSIs were included in the development and internal validation of two risk prediction models. A systematic search of the literature was conducted to identify relevant risk prediction models for their evaluation.

Results

The “GIVE SSI risk prediction model” (“GIVE SSI model”) and the “GIVE deep/organ space SSI risk prediction model” (“deep SSI model”) had adequate discrimination (C statistic 0.735 and 0.720, respectively). Three other groin incision SSI risk prediction models were identified; both GIVE risk prediction models significantly outperformed these other risk models in this cohort (C statistic 0.618 – 0.629; p < .050 for inferior discrimination in all cases).

Conclusion

Two models were created and internally validated that performed acceptably in predicting “all” and “deep” groin SSIs, outperforming current existing risk prediction models in this cohort. Future studies should aim to externally validate the GIVE models.

中文翻译：

血管暴露后腹股沟伤口感染 (GIVE) 风险预测模型：开发、内部验证以及与系统文献综述中确定的现有风险预测模型的比较

客观的

本研究旨在开发和内部验证用于预测动脉介入后腹股沟伤口手术部位感染 (SSI) 的风险预测模型，并评估现有风险预测模型对该结果的效用。

方法

使用来自血管暴露后腹股沟伤口感染 (GIVE) 多中心队列研究的数据。GIVE 研究前瞻性地招募了 1 039 名接受动脉手术的连续患者，这些患者通过 1 339 个腹股沟切口进行了动脉手术。据报道，每个腹股沟切口的总体 SSI 率为 8.6%，深部/器官间隙 SSI 率为 3.8%。两个风险预测模型的开发和内部验证包括所有 SSI 的八个独立预测因子和深部/器官空间 SSI 的四个独立预测因子。对文献进行了系统搜索，以确定相关的风险预测模型以进行评估。

结果

“GIVE SSI 风险预测模型”（“GIVE SSI 模型”）和“GIVE 深部/器官空间 SSI 风险预测模型”（“深部 SSI 模型”）具有足够的区分度（C 统计量分别为 0.735 和 0.720）。确定了其他三个腹股沟切口 SSI 风险预测模型；在该队列中，两种 GIVE 风险预测模型的表现均显着优于其他风险模型（C 统计量为 0.618 – 0.629；对于所有情况下的劣等歧视，p < .050）。