Dynamic institutional changes, and their impact at the actor level, are largely neglected in research on the role of institutional change in foreign direct investment (FDI). To fill this research gap, we analyze to what extent formal and informal institutional factors influence the investment decisions and strategies of managers. Internationally, since the protests in 2013 against the increasingly authoritarian Turkish government, there has been a growing perception of increasing uncertainty for FDI. This uncertainty poses investment risks for foreign firms based on a series of political developments and regional conflicts such as civil protests, an attempted military coup, and the war in Iraq and Syria. From an institutional perspective, we analyze how the perception of risk, based on formal institutional dynamics, influences the strategies of German firms operating in Turkey. We aim to find out how managers of these firms perceive and cope with these institutional risks. The paper is based on a quantitative telephone survey (n = 147), and 30 qualitative interviews with managers and experts in Turkey. We find that embedded German firms with long-term investment relationships in Turkey, rely on both formal and informal institutions to respond to risks arising from shocks at a formal institutional level.

在研究制度变迁在外国直接投资 (FDI) 中的作用时，动态制度变迁及其对行为者层面的影响在很大程度上被忽视了。为了填补这一研究空白，我们分析了正式和非正式制度因素在多大程度上影响经理人的投资决策和策略。在国际上，自 2013 年抗议日益专制的土耳其政府以来，人们越来越认为外国直接投资的不确定性越来越大。这种不确定性给外国公司带来了基于一系列政治发展和地区冲突（例如民间抗议、未遂军事政变以及伊拉克和叙利亚战争）的投资风险。从制度的角度来看，我们分析了基于正式制度动态的风险感知如何，影响在土耳其经营的德国公司的战略。我们的目标是找出这些公司的管理者如何看待和应对这些制度风险。该论文基于定量电话调查（n = 147）以及对土耳其管理人员和专家的 30 次定性访谈。我们发现在土耳其拥有长期投资关系的嵌入式德国公司依靠正式和非正式机构来应对正式机构层面的冲击带来的风险。