Blanchard and Leigh (Am Econ Rev 103(3):117–120, 2013; IMF Econ Rev 62(2):179–212, 2014) find fiscal multipliers to be underestimated in the EU in the deep recession of the early 2010s. Using two 2013–2018 datasets for 26 EU member states, assembled from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission’s Spring Forecasts, this paper shows that multiplier estimates in the EU have been overestimated in the post-crisis period. Forecasters then are still not capturing accurately the impact that fiscal policy has on output growth rates and are misestimating in a manner opposite to that reported by Blanchard and Leigh.

Blanchard 和 Leigh（Am Econ Rev 103(3):117-120, 2013; IMF Econ Rev 62(2):179-212, 2014）发现，在 2010 年代初的深度衰退中，欧盟的财政乘数被低估了。本文使用了 26 个欧盟成员国的两个 2013-2018 年数据集，这些数据集由稳定与融合计划和欧盟委员会的春季预测组成，表明欧盟的乘数估计在后危机时期被高估了。预测者仍然没有准确地捕捉财政政策对产出增长率的影响，并且以与布兰查德和利报告的相反的方式错误估计。